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Michigan, Six Weeks On: Coalition-Building Enters the Testing Phase
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Six weeks after Michigan’s Democratic primary, the central question is no longer simply whether Abdul El-Sayed can broaden the coalition that carried him to the nomination. The question is becoming more precise.
Can he still broaden that coalition while, at the same time, pressures that could divide it are growing?
Five weeks after the primary, there had not yet been enough change to speak of a new phase. Now, however, several signals are beginning to combine into a different picture.
Jewish voters are not a single bloc
El-Sayed’s relationship with part of Michigan’s Jewish community remains one of the most delicate issues in the race.
On 8 September, a group of rabbis and Jewish leaders set out a series of principles they described as non-negotiable, including Jewish safety and recognition of Jewish sovereignty in Israel. The message was clear: El-Sayed’s recent effort to rebuild trust still faces strong resistance. [1]
A few days later, however, movement appeared in the opposite direction.
Former senator Al Franken and more than twenty other Jewish Americans publicly endorsed El-Sayed. Some of them do not share his opposition to U.S. military aid to Israel. Even so, they argued that his positions are less far outside the American political mainstream than they are often portrayed. [2]
The new development, then, is not that El-Sayed has “won back” Jewish voters.
Rather, it is becoming increasingly difficult to treat Jewish voters as a single political bloc.
Rejection, conditions, openness to dialogue and support are now appearing within the same political space.
From policy to “loyalty”
The Republican attack is also changing in character.
Mike Rogers continues to portray El-Sayed as a representative of the Democratic Party’s radical wing. But the terrain of the attack has increasingly shifted toward 9/11, terrorism and national security, with El-Sayed’s Muslim identity itself becoming an implicit part of the frame.
At the Republican convention, Rogers linked El-Sayed to left-wing online political commentator Hasan Piker and revived a past remark Piker made about 9/11. At the same time, national Republican figures have intensified rhetoric connecting Muslim candidates with extremism and threats to national security. [3]
That shift matters.
The question is no longer only whether El-Sayed’s policies are right or wrong.
At least implicitly, the attack now reaches as far as whether he can be trusted as a full member of the American political community.
Yet this strategy may also produce unintended reactions.
It has resurfaced, for example, that Rogers previously voted against measures providing health care and benefits to 9/11 first responders and survivors. Using the memory of 9/11 as a political weapon may therefore rebound on those who deploy it. [4]
Not moving to the center, but moving the campaign’s central issue
El-Sayed’s response does not appear to be a rapid shift toward more moderate positions.
Instead, he is trying to return the campaign’s central focus to the everyday lives of people in Michigan.
At recent campaign events, he has repeatedly emphasized the cost of living, gasoline prices, trade tensions with Canada, the auto industry, health care and the role of big money in politics.
A new campaign ad also features his white grandparents. It appears designed to answer identity-based attacks without making identity itself the main battleground of the campaign. [5]
There is an important distinction here.
The strategy is not: “move toward the center in order to broaden the coalition.”
It may instead be: “move the campaign’s central issue away from identity conflict and toward the material conditions of voters’ lives.”
Meanwhile, Republican spending is growing. A super PAC linked to Donald Trump has reserved $15.7 million in Michigan to attack El-Sayed.
That alone shows how far his candidacy is now being treated not merely as a state race, but as part of a national political battle. [6]
The Carlson signal remains, for now, only a signal
In early September, conservative political commentator Tucker Carlson surprised many observers by praising several aspects of El-Sayed’s campaign.
Together with Saagar Enjeti, Carlson described El-Sayed’s emphasis on “America First” themes and criticism of foreign military aid as “literally Trumpian.” He also delivered a harsh assessment of Rogers. [7]
Potentially, that was an important signal.
It suggested that a progressive candidate might find points of contact with part of the anti-interventionist right without himself moving to the right.
But six weeks after the primary, there is still not enough evidence to conclude that this phenomenon is spreading.
Carlson’s remarks therefore remain a sign, not yet a trend.
The polls: a possible lead, but not a settled one
The polling also calls for caution.
The average of the five most recent polls compiled by 270toWin puts El-Sayed at 46.8% and Rogers at 44.6%. CNN/SSRS has El-Sayed ahead 47–44, and Trafalgar 46–45; Glengariff, by contrast, has Rogers ahead 46–44. [8]
So it is still too early to speak of an established El-Sayed lead.
At the same time, amid the intensifying attacks, we have not yet seen the collapse in support that some of his opponents appeared to expect.
Coalition-building enters the testing phase
Four weeks after the primary, the question was whether El-Sayed could broaden his coalition without breaking apart the one that had brought him that far.
Six weeks later, that question has become harder.
The effort to bring in new voters is now producing both openings and resistance.
Some Jewish Americans are moving toward El-Sayed; others are setting conditions or moving behind Rogers.
A figure from the anti-interventionist right such as Carlson is showing interest, but there is still no evidence of a broader movement.
Republicans are trying to turn the campaign into a fight over identity, loyalty and national security.
El-Sayed, in response, is trying to return the debate to everyday life and the economy.
We still do not know whether a new electoral coalition is truly taking shape.
But we can now see more clearly what El-Sayed would have to overcome in order to build one.
Six weeks after the primary, the question is no longer simply whether El-Sayed can broaden his coalition. It is whether he can do so while pressures that could divide it are growing at the same time.
Essential references
[4] The Guardian, 10 September 2026, on Rogers’s past votes concerning 9/11 first responders.
[7] Mediaite, 2 September 2026, on Tucker Carlson and Saagar Enjeti’s comments about El-Sayed.
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Source: Pressenza