There has long been a struggle over the economic order in Russia and Ukraine after the war. Parallel to the peace talks between the USA and Russia, a takeover of the Russian company Lukoil is being negotiated. Not for the first time, Trump's family could benefit.

The war in Ukraine has been going on for almost four and a half years now. The dynamics of warfare have changed significantly. From tanks and artillery to today's dominant drones and cyberattacks. Behind the scenes, however, NATO, Washington and Moscow continue to negotiate a possible end to the war.

This probably includes...ResearchThe New York Times also reported billions worth of Russian assetsoil company Lukoil.The group could be bought out of the USA in the future. The possible buyer consortium includes US billionaires, Gulf investors and a US government institution. Connections lead, for example, to the business network of the Trump family itself.

According to the research, the deal was even discussed directly with US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. At their meeting in the Kremlin on September 5, Vladimir Putin is said to have suggested that they use the takeover as a sign that Russia and the US can do profitable business with each other again.

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$20 billion on the negotiating table

The US Treasury Department placed Lukoil on the sanctions list on October 22, 2025. Just a few days later, the group announced that it would sell its assets. On January 29, 2026, Lukoil concluded an agreement with the US financial investor Carlyle for a sale in Vienna, Austria. However, the deal is not exclusive: Lukoil continues to negotiate with other interested parties and still needs approval from the US authorities.

This is not just about any Russian oil company. Lukoil has an international network of production facilities, refineries and filling stations. These include interests in oil fields in Iraq and Africa, as well as refineries in Europe and gas stations in the USA. The value of the international portfolio will be around20 billion dollarsappreciated.

Key assets include the West Qurna-2 oil field in Iraq, the Neftochim Burgas refinery in Bulgaria, Petrotel Ploiești in Romania and a stake in the Zeeland refinery in the Netherlands. There are also thousands of gas stations in Europe, Turkey and the USA. Behind it are billions of dollars andlong-term income.

Investors with ties to Trump

A group of investors interested in buying is led by the US billionaireTodd Boehlylisted. In addition to private investors from West Asia, the group also includes the state-owned U.S. International Development Finance Corporation. A federal agency that finances foreign investment.

According to reports, Boehly donated around $1 million to Trump's political campaign. At the same time, business relationships are maintained with Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. It would not be the first time that the Trump administration has used economic agreements as a possible tool to end wars.

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Trump: Presidency as a business model

Donald Trump and those around him benefit greatly from the presidency. Trump has been during his second termprivate business assetsmassively expanded. “Trump has found a way to monetize the presidency, political power and public policy in a way that no other president has achieved,” Princeton historian Julian Zelizer told the Guardian.

This reported in August 2026 that Trump's current income would have amounted to more than $2.2 billion in 2025 alone. Crypto transactions make up a significant part of this. More than a billion dollars flowed here. There is also income from real estate, golf courses, licensing deals and other Trump products. Trump watches alone generated $4.7 million in sales.

In addition, the social network Truth Social, founded by Trump, is intended to give investors access to Trump's posts for $100,000 a month. Senator Mark Warner warned against translating political influence directly into financial advantage.

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The “most openly corrupt” presidency

Especially in foreign business, there are repeated reports of an alleged conflict of interest between Trump as president and Trump as a businessman. So Trump took a plane worth400 millionUS dollars as a gift from the Qatari government. In doing so, he ignored the so-called Emoluments Clause in the US Constitution. This was originally intended to protect public officials from foreign influence.

In addition, a company affiliated with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) invested around $500 million in the crypto company World Liberty Financial in 2025, thereby acquiring 49 percent of the company. World Liberty Financial is owned by the Trump family and the entourage of West Asia special envoy Steve Witkoff.

Shortly thereafter, the US government made a policy decision in favor of the UAE and approved the sale of advanced AI chips. Despite initial safety concerns.

“Trump is using the powers of the presidency, both real and imagined, to financially benefit his business interests and his family’s business interests at an unprecedented level,”explainedLarry Noble, US campaign finance expert.

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Profits during and after the war

While assets are being redistributed on the international market in the wake of the war, access to Ukrainian raw materials in the post-war period is also being prepared.

In April 2025, Washington and Kyiv joined forcesRaw materials agreement. This obliges Kiev to invest 50 percent of the revenue from new raw material licenses in a joint US-Ukrainian reconstruction fund. Trump explicitly presented the deal as an economic incentive for the US to participate in the long-term reconstruction and support of Ukraine.

At the beginning of October, five new projects worth a total of around $70 million were approved. This includes a $30 million project for critical raw materials such as rare earths, uranium, beryllium and zirconium.

The Trump administration is directly linking American support for Ukraine to thislong-term economic interests. The fund is intended to invest in raw materials, energy and infrastructure and attract further private capital. US companies will have preferential access to strategic raw materials.

Critical raw materials are strategically relevant for the USA for industry, defense production and technological competition with China. For the Ukrainian government, foreign capital and investments are central to rebuilding the destroyed economy after the war and reducing billions of dollars in debt to NATO countries.

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Merz visits Kiev with a business delegation

Also Germanyis trying to position itself economically in the Ukrainian raw materials and energy sector. In April 2026, Berlin and Kiev agreed to closer cooperation in the exploration and development of Ukrainian raw material deposits.

This economic connection was further expanded during Friedrich Merz's visit on October 4th: a business delegation accompanied the Chancellor. 16 corporate agreements with a total value of around 6.5 billion euros were signed. In addition to armaments and energy, it is also about German companies that could be involved in reconstruction and, in the future, in the development of Ukrainian raw materials.

Merz also promised Kiev 1.35 billion euros for weapons and infrastructure. This means that German state resources are flowing into war and reconstruction, while at the same time German companies are expanding their (future) economic position in Ukraine.

War continues

At the same time as economic deals and peace negotiations, the military situation is worsening before the start of winter. According to Ukrainian intelligence, President Putin said:There are no more rules in war. At the beginning of October, several bridges over the Dnipro were attacked in Kiev within several days. First a drone hit the south bridge. A day later the north bridge was attacked. During Chancellor Merz's visit, the North Bridge was hit again. Several traffic connections had to be temporarily closed.

Ukraine is also increasing its attacks on targets deep in the Russian hinterland. Ukrainian drones have repeatedly hit refineries and other facilities in the Russian oil industry. President Volodymyr Zelenskyquiton October 3rd to further expand the attacks on Russian refineries. Kiev is not only targeting military infrastructure, but also a central part of the Russian war economy: the processing and export of oil and thus an important source of income for the Russian state.

Meanwhile, the population bears the immediate costs: the destruction of cities and infrastructure, an impending winter without electricity and heating, the war mobilization and the economic consequences.

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