Empty gas storage facilities, rising energy costs and inflation at a new high. Millions of people are facing an expensive winter. At the same time, the government is planning the next cuts. – A comment by Fevzi Ayçiçek.

The first days of autumn already show where winter is developing in Germany: TheEnergy prices are risingby 40 percent, the German gas storage facilities are at just under half, well below the filling levels of previous years and at the same time inflation continues to rise steadily. Especially because of rising oil and gas prices.

But our German federal government is not really interested in this so far. Even if they are in their lastWrite a situation reportenSaying that it is taking “this development very seriously,” the government is shifting the responsibility entirely to the market. “Winter precautions and filling the storage tanks are fundamentally the responsibility of the gas traders,”explainedthe Federal Network Agency.

The Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BWE) has also downgraded the alert level for the emergency plan for gas. Since July 1, 2025, only the early warning level has applied. It's on thatWorld market“Sufficient gas available and sufficient import options available.” This is despite the fact that prices are at a record high and with the Strait of Hormuz still closed, the global economy and European wholesale prices have been driven up.

The Strait of Hormuz and the Energy Market

After the US and Israel began their war against Iran at the end of February, the latter blocked the Strait of Hormuz. After six months of war and numerous attempts at negotiations, there still seems to be no end in sight.

However, the strait is one of the most important shipping routes through which around a fifth of global liquefied natural gas trade normally takes place. "The longer the war in the Middle East continues and energy prices remain high, the more consumer prices for food, services and goods are likely to rise in the medium term," he saidIfo researcher Tiphaine Wibault.

The ongoing blockade is particularly restricting LNG deliveries from the Gulf region. LNG – that stands for liquefied natural gas. It is heavily cooled so that it can be transported over long distances more easily by ship. The crisis has already driven up European gas prices significantly. The TTF price (“Title Transfer Facility”) is the most important European reference price for natural gas. It has more than doubled since the beginning of the year.

At the beginning of September, the price temporarily exceeded 75 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) - it has not been this high since the beginning of 2023. A look at the prices for households shows what this means in everyday life: a kilowatt hour of gas now costs around 12.42 cents and could become even more expensive if the crisis worsens.

For a household with a gas heater or stove, just a few cents more per kilowatt hour can quickly add up to several hundred euros a year. And it doesn't just stop at heating: service providers, food producers and other companies also have to pay their higher energy costs. In the end, they pass on their higher prices to workers.

Low save levels

At the same time, German gas storage facilities are unusually low for this time of year. At the end of August the filling level was around 53 percent. Around 20 percentage points less than the previous year's value. For comparison: a filling level of 80 percent is the target for November 1st in preparation for the winter months.

However, the supply is currently not in acute danger, there is no gas shortage. At least that's what the federal government claims. But this analysis is based on the hope that the war in West Asia will end soon. But there are hardly any signs of an impending end. It is currently more realistic that the war will drag on even longer.

If the storage facilities cannot be filled sufficiently and at the same time LNG deliveries via Hormuz continue to fail, this could result in a price shock. This price shock would be the strongest since the energy crisis following the war in Ukraine. Because gas is not just any consumer good. It is used for heating, in industrial production and, through electricity, influences transport and manufacturing costs for almost the entire economy.

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Gas prices are skyrocketing

As prices rise and uncertainty about energy supplies increases, Economics Minister Katharina Reiche defends the government's actions. Or rather their non-existent actionsbefore criticism. The CDU politician has so far refused to allow the state to intervene and ensure better gas reserves. And this despite the fact that at the beginning of September last year, the storage tanks were more than 70 percent full and the level was already considered low at the time.

However, the Ministry of Economic Affairs' argument that Germany is adequately secured through various supply sources and liquid gas terminals is not sufficient in reality. Although there are government guidelines for the filling levels of the gas storage facilities, experts believe that the filling target for November 1st is already difficult to achieve.

Even Bavaria's Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU) is therefore calling for federal intervention. And there is also growing concern within the federal government about possible bottlenecks in the winter. But the discourse ignores a very crucial question: Even if there is enough gas available, what happens if it becomes unaffordable for millions of people?

Already visible when refueling

For the population, it makes no fundamental difference whether gas is physically missing or whether its price increases so much that households can no longer pay their heating costs. The most obvious way to see this is when refueling. Because the prices here have been fluctuating strongly for a long time.

It was at the end of AugustPrice for one liter of Super E10at an average of 2.15 euros, just 5 cents below the high from March 2022. The situation is similar for diesel. The highest value of 2.45 euros was reached in April of this year. It currently averages 2.20 euros per liter.

Anyone who has to drive to work every day cannot simply avoid these costs. With an average consumption of seven liters per 100 kilometers, just 50 kilometers of driving with E10 costs around 7.50 euros.

Iran war has serious consequences for oil, gas and the global economy

This means that the energy crisis is felt in many ways for many people: at home through heating costs, at the gas station through fuel prices and in the supermarket through the costs passed on by companies.

The market should decide

Instead of treating energy supply as a basic social supply, the federal government is sticking to a logic according to which the market decides on distribution. But in some cases the government does intervene in the markets. Because unlike workers, the government has made provisions for large industry. Tax relief, new CO₂ regulations and where this is not enough, the costs are passed on to end consumers.

In the Eurozone as a whole, price increases have recently increased. Gas and oil also make production, transport, food and services more expensive. What begins on the European wholesale market is therefore passed on to consumers with a delay in order to secure their own profits.

So thereJörg Krämer, chief economist at Commerzbank, admitted this openly: “Even if oil were to flow unhindered through the Strait of Hormuz again and energy became cheaper, inflation would likely remain well above the ECB’s target of two percent for a long time.” He justifies this by saying that companies are forced to pass on the previous increase in energy costs to customers.

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Inflation is rising again

In Germany the inflation rate wasin August at 2.9 percent, in June it was 2.3. Energy prices rose particularly sharply and quickly: in August they were 10.5 percent above the previous year's level, after increasing by 8.3 percent in July and 3.4 percent in June. In the European Union, consumer prices rose by 3.3 percent in August, as the EU statistics office announced.

The so-called core inflation, which excludes energy and food, is currently 2.4 percent, below the general inflation rate. But this is precisely what shows that the current energy shock has not yet fully penetrated all prices. If companies pass on their increased energy and production costs, the price increase is likely to spread further in the coming months.

The ifo Institute therefore expects inflation to remain high. An inflation rate of3.0 percentpredicted. The federal government itself, on the other hand, expects a drop to 1.9 by 2028. Assuming that the Iran war will end soon and the switch from national CO₂ prices to the European system ETS II actually lowers the prices.

Although unit labor costs - i.e. the costs that companies pay for the work of their employees per piece produced - will rise less sharply this year and next year, this is primarily a relief for the industry. For workers, however, a slower increase in unit labor costs does not automatically mean higher wages. Because the cost of living increases due to inflation. The real wage continues to fall steadily.

Even if energy prices fall again, the higher costs could remain visible in consumer prices for a long time. The bill for this does not go to the energy companies and large companies, but to the people who have to heat, shop and live on their wages.

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Inflation and rising prices meet social cuts

The energy price shock does not coincide with a policy that plans to improve the living conditions of the majority. On the contrary: At the same time, the federal government is happily planning further reforms and cuts in the welfare state. The debate about citizens' benefits, unemployment insurance, pensions, care and other social benefits represents a fundamental political direction. Because the costs of the crisis should be passed on more heavily to workers and those who are already socially disadvantaged.

However, the state is by no means powerless in the face of the market, even if politicians would like to abdicate their responsibility for it. When banks, corporations or economic stability are at risk, billions are mobilized, guarantees are given, price controls are imposed, industrial companies are relieved of the burden with lower taxes and prices are influenced by the state.

So the question is not whether the state can intervene in the market. The question is whose interests need to be protected. When it comes to stabilizing capital and companies, government intervention is suddenly considered necessary. When it comes to the question of how we workers should pay our heating costs, rent or food, the market should regulate itself.

Capital demands cuts

At the same time, the demands from business and capital are becoming more and more offensive - for example with theIncendiary letterto the federal government, in which, among others, the company Siemens and 16 other business associations and companies are calling for faster social cuts in Germany.

The attacks on workers are becoming more and more concrete: the government has approved waiting days and a reduction in continued payment of wages in the event of illness, while the 40-hour week is under attack. Limitations without any objective reason should be extended to up to 48 months. What is sold under “competitiveness” means one thing above all for workers: working longer, less security and more risk. While companies and capital demand further relief.

But if the state is prepared to protect the interests of capital with billions and political interventions, we as workers must demand even more decisively that there are no further cuts for those who live from their work. That means: affordable energy, secure pensions, good wages and a strong welfare state instead of social cuts for the benefit of profits.

Fire letter to Merz: Siemens and Co. are demanding faster social cuts at our expense

No attacks without resistance - let's give the government a hot autumn

If people can buy less with their income every month, rents and heating costs rise and social benefits are cut at the same time, dissatisfaction with the current politics also grows. This was already visible last weekend during the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt. The most important issue for most voters’ voting decisions was thisEconomic situation.

At Anti-War Day on September 1st, in many places special attention was paid to redistribution in favor of rearmament.On September 26, 2026The DGB is calling for a nationwide day of action for a strong welfare state. Rallies and demonstrations are planned in 15 major cities - under the motto "Hard earned! Your work. Your health. Your pension."

These protests must be taken up and developed further. The protests must grow into a movement that connects cuts to the “bigger picture”. Because the energy crisis, inflation, social cuts and the growing pressure on workers are not separate problems. They have a common basis: a society in which the interests of capital and profit of the few are placed above the needs of the majority.

Build a protest movement!

That is why resistance must not stop at individual protests against reforms. While companies receive billions in aid and government support for economic growth and rearmament, workers are expected to have waiting days, longer working hours and cuts in social benefits. That's why we have to stand up all the more resolutely for our actual interests and join together in a protest movement that takes on the state and capital!

September 26th can be an important start. But we can also benefit from other struggles, such as the school strike on September 25th or the protest weekend against the NATO maneuvers in Hamburg at the end of September. Let's give the government a hot autumn: let's organize in companies, unions and on the streets. Against social cuts, against passing on the costs of the crisis. For a society in which our needs, those of the majority, are the focus and not the profits of corporations!

 

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