USA | Republican Party Convention: Trump promises the world

US President Donald Trump dances after his speech at the Republican Party Convention. Photo: Alex Brandon/AP/dpa The Republicans want to defend their narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress in the US congressional elections in November. At the party conference in Dallas, President Donald Trump is relying on a well-known strategy: he portrays the Democrats as a radical left-wing threat, presents his own government record as a magnificent success story and puts himself at the center of an election in which he is not even on the ballot.

The congressional elections on November 3rd are one of the most important votes in the history of the country. According to his account, a victory for the “radical left-wing Democrats” would set the USA back for a whole decade. In doing so, Trump is explicitly turning the midterm elections into a referendum on his presidency.

In interim elections, the so-called “midterms,” the entire House of Representatives and around a third of the Senate are re-elected. There is a lot at stake for Trump and his party: If the Republicans lose even one of the two chambers, the Democrats could block government projects and put considerable pressure on the president's administration through investigations in congressional committees.

Even more unusual than Trump's self-promotion is the promise with which he is canvassing for votes. If the Republicans defend their majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives, he says, all adult US citizens should receive a payment of $5,000. That would currently correspond to around 4,300 euros. The money must be spent in the USA, explained Trump. They don't want people to spend their money in Canada, China or Germany.

The president did not explain how this so-called “Trump dividend” would be financed. With more than 245 million adults in the U.S., the theoretical cost would add up to more than $1 trillion. That would be roughly the size of the entire US defense budget. A corresponding decision is therefore hardly realistic, even under the given political majority. There are also legal questions about whether such a payment could be used to influence an election. However, Trump portrayed the payment as a later economic achievement.

The pledge is one of a series of statements the president has made in an attempt to shift attention from his administration's problems to a positive narrative for the future. According to Trump's account, the past two years have been the most successful in the history of the US presidency - financially and in every other respect. He pointed to securing the border, a decline in illegal immigration, falling violent crime and tax cuts.

The fact that these developments are not all due to his government is irrelevant in this presentation. Violent crime in the USA has been declining since 2023. The number of unauthorized border crossings has also fallen significantly, but by no means to zero. Trump's tax policy, in turn, is controversial domestically, among other things because of feared consequences for the healthcare system.

At the party conference, the positive view of one's own government is combined with a warning about political competition. Several leading Republicans portrayed the Democrats as a radical left-wing threat. Republican House Majority Leader Steve Scalise claimed that the Democratic Party had been completely taken over by "crazy communists." Other speakers also resorted to equating Democrats and Communists.

Trump himself also described the Democrats as radical leftists and warned against leaving the future of the country to them. The pattern is not new. Trump had already declared in the 2024 presidential election campaign that his opponents should be portrayed as communists or socialists. It has now become a central element of the Republican campaign strategy. The Republicans are also reacting to the success of left-wing candidates in Democratic primaries. Some representatives of the left wing of the party were able to prevail against more moderate candidates.

Historically, the strategy is based on an enemy image that is deeply anchored in the USA. During the Cold War, fear of communism was widespread, the so-called “Red Scare”. However, around 35 years after the end of the Soviet Union, the social significance of this threat scenario is significantly less. A survey conducted by the Yougov Institute on behalf of The Economist magazine in July showed that just under a fifth of respondents currently view communists in the United States as a major threat. About a third saw no danger at all.

However, historian Matthew Dallek from George Washington University believes it is possible that Trump supporters will be additionally motivated to vote at all by warning about a supposed communist opponent. At the same time, this threat scenario competes with very concrete problems in voters' everyday lives.

One of the biggest burdens for the Republicans is the war against Iran. The USA started the conflict together with Israel more than six months ago. Contrary to what Trump initially suggested, the military operation did not end after a few weeks. According to available information, 18 US soldiers died.

The consequences for energy prices are particularly politically relevant. The price of oil recently rose again to more than $100 per barrel. Drivers in the USA are now paying around 40 percent more for gasoline than they did seven months earlier, i.e. before the start of the war. Many voters are therefore very dissatisfied with the conflict.

Trump has been assuring for months that the war will end soon. Before his departure to Dallas, the venue for the party conference, he had announced that the Iran war would end "immediately" after the congressional elections on November 3rd and that oil and food prices would therefore fall. Iran could no longer hold out, he said. At the same time, he accused Tehran of wanting to influence the US election so that it could continue to work on nuclear weapons undisturbed.

"I think the war will end immediately after the election because they can't hold out any longer."

What is particularly politically striking is the timing of the promised end to the war: Trump is promising the end of the conflict immediately after the election, even though high energy prices are currently placing a heavy political burden on his government. If it were within his power to force Iran to surrender, such a victory before the midterm elections would benefit him much more than promising it after the election.

Trump is acting similarly on other foreign policy issues. Before flying to Dallas, he spoke about his phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to Trump's assessment, he is ready to reach an agreement to end the war in Ukraine. Putin has signaled a corresponding interest. However, no significant progress was made in recent talks between US representatives, Russia and Ukraine.

The party conference follows a clear dramaturgy. On the one hand, there is a warning: If the Democrats win, according to the Republicans, there is a threat of radical leftism, communism, open borders and the loss of security and tax cuts. On the other side are promises: falling prices, an immediate end to the Iran war, an agreement in the Ukraine war and finally $5,000 for every adult.

This shows above all the Republicans' fear of an election defeat. Trump's personal poll numbers are significantly worse than at the beginning of his second term in office. Only about a third of US citizens rate his policies positively. The Iran war and its tariff policy, which have also contributed to the cost of living, are particularly unpopular.

The party conference should therefore focus primarily on Trump's successes. The event itself is an expression of this strategy. Normally, US parties hold a large party conference in conjunction with presidential elections. The Republicans have now held such a party conference for the first time before the “midterms”. In Dallas, the focus is less on developing a new party program than on mobilization for the upcoming vote.

“Act like I’m on the ballot.”

Concern is visible within the Republican Party. MPs from contested constituencies in particular stayed away from the party conference. They apparently fear that being too close to the president could worsen their own election chances. Former advisor to Republican President George W. Bush, Karl Rove, also advocated keeping Trump in the background given his poor poll numbers during the election campaign.

In Dallas, the exact opposite is happening. Trump's face is on posters in the arena, his supporters wear clothing with his name and likeness, and the president himself is turning the election into a vote on his policies. “Act as if I’m on the ballot,” Trump urged his party’s supporters during his nearly two-hour speech on Wednesday evening.

It remains unclear whether the strategy will work. Republicans currently have slim majorities in both chambers of Congress. Traditionally, the president's party loses seats in the midterms. According to current polls, the Republicans are threatened with losing the majority in the House of Representatives and a stalemate in the Senate. However, it remains to be seen whether the Democrats would use this to pursue a more aggressive policy against Trump. With agencies.

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