Runoff election in Brazil | Brazil: “Many people hate Lula”

Flávio Bolsonaro is certain of the support of the evangelicals. Here he kisses a Bible during the celebrations for the 100th anniversary of the Pentecostal church “Assemblies of God Ministry of Madureira”. Photo: dpa/Bruna Prado The runoff election for Brazil's presidency is taking place on Sunday. Before the first round, the PT workers' party and its candidate Lula da Silva were leading the polls for a long time. The result was disappointing, with the ultra-right Flávio Bolsonaro in the lead. Why did this happen?

Lula's campaign team seems to have underestimated Flávio Bolsonaro. He is the son of disgraced former President Jair Bolsonaro, who was convicted of an attempted coup in 2023 and is responsible for hundreds of thousands of additional deaths during the Covid-19 pandemic in Brazil. The idea that “Bolsonarismo” had had its day and that Flávio Bolsonaro was not exactly the most popular representative of the extreme right may have contributed to the belief that Lula was in for an easy victory. In addition, Flávio Bolsonaro was linked to a corruption scandal centered on banker Daniel Vorcaro, who not only ran fraudulent financial transactions but also did business with important political players - including by granting access to parties and sexual favors. Under normal circumstances you would think that it would be over for Flávio.

Circumstances have not been normal for some time. There is a high level of depoliticization, exacerbated by a strong disinformation ecosystem fueled by social media, and the left is in a crisis of authority. Many people hate Lula simply because they believe he is responsible for all of Brazil's problems.

Dr. Sabrina Fernandes, a former scholarship holder of the Rosa-Luxemburg-Stiftung, is a Brazilian political scientist and, among other things, the author of the book “Morbid Symptoms: The crossroads of the Brazilian Left,” published in Portuguese. She is involved in the election campaign strategies of the PT workers' party and is coordinating 7,000 people to mobilize for the runoff election for Lula. Ulrich Brand, Professor of International Politics at the University of Vienna, where he heads the Latin America research group, spoke to her.

Although Lula has had a lead in most polls throughout the year, it is now common for the far right to make up the gap once the official campaign begins. Since there was a lack of strong mobilization on the left before Lula's election campaign, much of the right-wing extremist rhetoric was widely accepted without any significant popular dissent. In fact, the negative attitude towards Lula has been around for a long time, and in recent years left-wing critics have repeatedly pointed out to the Workers' Party and the Lula government how important it is to improve communication about the president's good deeds before the elections.

Flávio Bolsonaro inherited his father's loyal voter base: people who believe that the Bolsonaro family is good, conservative, Christian and persecuted by the left and the judiciary. Some of his voters fear communism and falsely associate Lula with it. Of course, there are many members of Brazil's elite, from agribusiness representatives to big businessmen, who are angered by Lula's attempt to tax the rich to provide relief for the poor. Others are simply against anything left-wing, and although they distrust the Bolsonaros, they would vote for any right-wing candidate just to prevent a progressive candidate. There is a great moral panic behind the behavior of some voters. They are afraid of transgender people and the idea of ​​unisex toilets. They reject the support measures aimed at starting a process of reparations for the black population of Brazil. They associate Lula with the legalization of abortion, even though Lula never dared to propose expanding reproductive rights in Brazil during his three terms in office.

What awaits us in the second round of voting on October 25th?

It takes place because no candidate received more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round of voting. This also means that millions of people who voted for another right-wing candidate in early October will either turn to Flávio Bolsonaro, invalidate their vote or even accept Lula, seeing him as the lesser evil. This means that the second round of voting will be a referendum on the extent to which these candidates will also be rejected. The voters who vote for Bolsonaro in the second round may not like him, but they like Lula even less.

In Brazil, voting is compulsory for people between the ages of 18 and 70. If you do not vote and do not give reasons for your absence, you may experience difficulties in issuing documents or enrolling in public educational institutions. In fact, the absence can be easily justified, for example due to travel or illness, or you can simply pay a fine of around 0.60 euros. You can do all of this online without leaving your home. For those who believe that all candidates are equal and their vote does not matter at all, it is better to stay home and pay a fine than to stand in a queue on election day and invalidate the ballot. More and more Brazilians are deciding to do this. In the first round of voting, 33.4 million people stayed away from voting - for whatever reason - which corresponds to around 21 percent of those eligible to vote. The disinformation that misleads people about the causes of the country's problems further exacerbates the problem of voting abstention while fueling the hatred and confusion that helped bring "Bolsonarismo" to this point.

What strategies are currently in place to reverse the outcome?

Lula is targeting non-voters, hoping to mobilize millions by showing them what could be lost if Bolsonaro becomes president. To this end, Lula and his team have increased their online communication and launched policies and initiatives that are in line with the government line. For example, it simplifies the tax framework for sole traders and self-employed service providers. Already in the first round of voting, Lula finally addressed a demand that had become more important in the past year: the ban on online sports betting, which has led to debt crises and mental stress in many families. The fact that the right-wing Senate felt pressured on October 14 to approve shortening the working week from six to five days - an important election campaign issue for the left - also speaks in Lula's favor.

Do you still see a realistic chance of Lula winning?

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