Russia | Neutered choice

Elections in Russia are a ritual that is primarily intended to demonstrate festivity and solidarity. The result is often determined in advance. Photo: IMAGO/SNA/Alexandr Kryazhev When the polling stations in Russia close on Sunday evening, people in the Kremlin will probably breathe a sigh of relief that the mandatory exercise of the Duma election has been completed.

For the first time since the invasion of Ukraine, Russians are voting on a new parliament. Usually a ritual that follows a predetermined pattern. The ruling party United Russia receives the constituent majority and behind it, at a considerable distance, comes the system opposition made up of Communists, Liberals and New People, the order of which is an indicator of the dissatisfaction and wishes of the Russians. A real opposition is not desired.

"The war castrated domestic political life and turned the election into an empty and meaningless ritual."

But the 2026 election is different. The consequences of the war, the lack of gasoline, the increasingly restricted internet, economic effects and the fear of a new mobilization fueled by Ukraine and foreign-financed exile media have eroded “Putin's stability” more than anyone in the Kremlin could have imagined.

"The war has finally castrated domestic political life in Russia and turned the election, which was held out of habit, into an empty and meaningless ritual," says journalist and political expert Andrei Pertsev, outlining the current situation for the Carnegie Center.

This presented the government with unexpected problems. In June, returning officer Ella Pamfilova had to admit that this year's elections were taking place under special circumstances. Pamfilova spoke unusually openly about "difficult conditions" and a "general fatigue in society" that lead to a tense political atmosphere.

According to reports from the online media "Meduza", the political technologists from the Kremlin corrected the targets for United Russia downwards, also because they did not know what content they actually wanted to use to advertise themselves. There was therefore no sign of an election campaign in many places.

»The election campaigns only started at the last minute. Little humor, lots of oddities,” summarizes analyst Julian Balandin for the daily newspaper Vedomosti. Overall, the election campaign went “on a quiet note,” says political consultant Alyona Awgust.

From the Kremlin's perspective, things could have stayed the same. If it weren't for Jabloko. With a clear anti-war course, the liberal party was able to win over many Russians and would have had a realistic chance of becoming the second strongest force in the Duma. A scenario that did not fit into the government's election plan. The result was exclusion from the election by the country's highest court.

Jabloko's non-admission has also made the Duma election a litmus test of the state of the Russian opposition. The former local politician and blogger Maxim Katz, who now lives in exile in Israel, accused the exiled opposition of being partially to blame for the party's exclusion due to a lack of support.

Moscow-based politician Yulia Galyamina, on the other hand, is convinced that Yabloko would have been removed from the ballot in any case. The opposition's biggest problem is still communication. There could never be any question of a uniform strategy. Jabloko neither contacted the exiled opposition nor did they ask whether the party needed support and what that might look like, says Galjamina in an interview with the journalist platform “Bereg”.

Even right before the election, the competition between the opposition wings, which cannot agree on a uniform strategy, continues. Earlier this week, Yulia Navalnaya and her Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK), together with Katz, published a joint strategy for voting, which essentially aims to vote tactically against United Russia. They published a list of the relevant candidates.

Jabloko, on the other hand, had called for the ballot papers to be invalidated or, where possible, for the party's candidates to be elected. Party leader Nikolai Rybakov accused Navalnaya and Katz of calling for the election of people who would campaign for Yabloko supporters to be persecuted. Galjamina also doesn't think tactical voting makes sense, as it simply involves "exchanging one cannibal for another."

The opposition will not be able to prevent United Russia's desired and outlined election victory this time either. However, Jabloko's clear demeanor has shown that young people in particular can be mobilized again for political issues.

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