Presidential elections in Brazil | Brazil: Lula is trying to catch up

Lula's announcement after the defeat in the first round was clear: nothing is completely lost yet. Photo: AFP/Nelson Almeida For Andrea Barreto, “the great catastrophe” has occurred, and it has a name: Flávio Bolsonaro. The son of convicted ex-President Jair Bolsonaro was ahead of Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva in the presidential election with 47.03 percent. The Social Democratic incumbent received 45.16 percent of the vote.

On Sunday, the activist of the landless movement MST was called upon, together with 160 million Brazilians, to cast their vote. Barreto, 34 years old, wearing a red blazer, stands in front of a hall in the center of São Paulo after the election. She followed the counting here together with a few hundred leftists. The mood is depressed. 

On October 25th there will be a runoff election between Bolsonaro and Lula. Barreto is very worried about a possible term in office for the ultra-right senator from Rio de Janeiro. She fears a reduction in social achievements, repression against social movements and more violence against women.

A few hours earlier, press representatives and guests from the Workers' Party had gathered in a chic hotel in the Jardins district. In his first speech after the count, Lula was combative and promised those present a committed election campaign. But Lula's optimism could not hide the disappointment of many on the left.

In addition to the president, the House of Representatives, parts of the Senate, the governors and the state parliaments were also elected on Sunday. Ultra-right candidates prevailed there. The Partido Liberal, the liberal party to which Bolsonaro belongs, will have the most representatives in the House of Representatives in the future. In the Senate, 34 of the 54 newly allocated seats went to right-wing candidates.

In São Paulo, the most populous state in Brazil, the incumbent Tarcísio de Freitas, who is close to Bolsonaro, won the governorship in the first round of elections. In Rio de Janeiro, the ultra-right candidate Douglas Ruas was clearly ahead of incumbent Eduardo Paes, but missed an absolute majority. The two must therefore compete against each other in a runoff election.

What was particularly noticeable in this election was that many MPs initially drew attention to themselves on social media. There are a number of political influencers who reach an audience of millions and have turned traditional communication on its head. The extreme right in particular is scoring points online, also because their constant provocations seem to be rewarded by the algorithms of the major platforms.

Flávio Bolsonaro is not the only family member to emerge stronger from the election. Renan Bolsonaro, the ex-president's youngest son, enters the Chamber of Deputies. Carlos Bolsonaro, another son of Jair Bolsonaro, was elected to the Senate in Santa Catarina. And Michelle Bolsonaro, the former first lady, won one of the two Senate seats in the Federal District.

Flávio Bolsonaro himself has announced that he would pardon his father if he wins the election. Jair Bolsonaro is currently serving a prison sentence for a planned coup. This means that the family clan, which was declared dead a few weeks ago, could be on the verge of a spectacular return to power.

But there are at least some bright spots for the left: MP Érika Hilton from São Paulo is entering parliament with the most votes ever won by a female candidate. Hilton is a member of the Party for Socialism and Freedom (PSOL), a left-wing split from the PT workers' party. Many PSOL candidates also entered the state parliaments and are likely to form a tough opposition to the Bolsonaro camp.

Nevertheless, the individual successes cannot hide the gloomy overall picture. Even for the experienced campaigner Lula, it will be difficult to catch up. His party is now speculating on mobilizing non-voters. Around 20 percent of Brazilians did not vote, despite compulsory voting. What speaks against catching up: The three best-placed candidates behind Bolsonaro and Lula are all conservative. They will most likely not make a recommendation for Lula.

If Bolsonaro Junior wins the election, it will be tantamount to the political farewell of the 80-year-old Lula. The left does not yet have an alternative figure that could stand in a future election. In addition, the geopolitical balance of power – right-wing dominance in Latin America, Trump as an ally – would be conducive to the authoritarian project of Bolsonarism.

So what’s next for the left? MST activist Barreto believes that the movements must now enter into dialogue with “people outside their bubble.” You have to make it clear to people what impact a possible Bolsonaro term in office will have. There are still three weeks left to avert “the worst.” And if anyone can fix it, Barreto believes, it's Lula.

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