Climate crisis | Climate change is becoming a threat to existence

After the devastating landslides in Nepal this August Photo: AFP/PRAKASH MATHEMA When the sun sets over the Pale di San Martino, a breathtaking spectacle is presented. The rugged rocky pinnacles of the Dolomites change their colors from yellow to pink. This alpenglow leaves the deceptive impression that nature is still intact here in northern Italy. But climate change has also left its mark in the natural park between Trentino and Veneto. In the spruce forest of Paneveggio, valuable wood was obtained for centuries for the construction of soundboards for high-quality musical instruments, including the world-famous Stradivarius. This will soon be over. In October 2018, an unusually strong storm in the Dolomites knocked down 14 million trees. Replanting in the “violin forest” is not a solution – master instruments require spruces that are at least 150 years old.

Climate change is affecting even the production of luxury goods. But the wealthy have far better opportunities to avoid the consequences that have long been felt, even by moving to safer areas. As is usual in capitalism, this is largely a question of money.

Global warming takes place in a world of inequality and exacerbates it. »Die Folgen des Klimawandels treffen weltweit am stärksten die Bevölkerungsgruppen, die am wenigsten dafür verantwortlich sind«, sagt Marlehn Thieme, Präsidentin der Welthungerhilfe. They are found primarily in desperately poor countries in the global south. Nach UN-Angaben leiden weltweit rund 80 Prozent der von Armut betroffenen Menschen (ca. 651 Millionen Menschen) direkt unter schweren Klimagefahren.

Auch in Deutschland bekommen vor allem die vulnerablen Gruppen die zunehmenden Hitzewellen zu spüren: Einkommensschwache, die in ungedämmten, nicht klimatisierten Behausungen leben, Hochbetagte in Pflegeheimen und durch Krankheit Geschwächte in Kliniken. Although according to official estimates there were at least 15,000 deaths in this hot summer, little is happening. Nationwide, 59 percent of all clinics cannot cool any of their patient rooms, which affects both patients and employees.

Während in wohlhabenden Ländern Klimawandelfolgen durch die öffentliche Hand entschärft werden können, ist in vielen Ländern des globalen Südens nicht einmal das möglich. Aus diesem Grund dominiert das Thema der Finanzhilfen die Verhandlungen bei den UN-Klimakonferenzen – und bremsen sie aufgrund geringer Fortschritte. This will be no different at the COP-31 summit, which begins on Monday in Antalya, Turkey, as observers expect. Important donor countries such as the EU have already rejected calls for increased funding in advance.

Ultimately, people in the poorer countries of Asia, Latin America and Africa remain largely on their own. The consequences of global warming affect all areas of life and work.

The consequences of global warming affect all areas of life and work.

Extreme weather events are becoming more common in regions as a result of climate change, they are becoming more severe and lasting longer. Auch in diesem Jahr: Dürre und extreme Hitze in Südwesteuropa, monatelange Vegetationsbrände in Südostasien, verheerende Überschwemmungen im östlichen Afrika oder Erdrutsche nach einem Gletscherkollaps in Nepal. Gerade erst bezifferte die EU-Kommission die wirtschaftlichen Verluste durch wetter- und klimabedingte Extremereignisse in den Mitgliedstaaten zwischen 1980 und 2024 auf über 800 Milliarden Euro. More than a quarter of this came from the last four years alone, and the trend continues to rise.

Like previous years, 2026 is shaping up to be one of the warmest years since records began in 1850. The official global calculation does not use individual years, but the 20-year average. Accordingly, global warming is now around 1.3 °C to 1.43 °C compared to pre-industrial times. Die Obergrenze von 1,5 °C aus dem Pariser Abkommen dürfte laut aktueller Prognose des EU-Klimawandeldienstes Copernicus um das Jahr 2029 erreicht und dann überschritten werden. Und das UN-Umweltprogramm erwartet bis zum Ende des Jahrhunderts 2,8 Grad Erwärmung, wenn die Staaten ihre Klimaschutzanstrengungen nicht doch noch deutlich verstärken. Depending on the model, there are also worse scenarios.

As before, warming on land would be about twice as high. Der Grund: »70 Prozent des Globus bestehen aus Meeresflächen, und die Ozeane erwärmen sich durch die thermische Trägheit langsamer und auch insgesamt weniger aufgrund der Verdunstung«, erläutert Stefan Rahmstorf vom Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung. Der Experte für Erdsystemanalyse hat vor einiger Zeit skizziert, wie eine Drei-Grad-Welt aussehen würde: »Bei einem solchen Szenario würden wir unser Land und die Welt insgesamt nicht mehr wiedererkennen. Almost certainly this earth would be full of horrors for the people who would have to experience them.

A few key words about what we could expect, according to Rahmstorf's expertise: weather chaos with deadly heat waves, devastating monster storms and persistent widespread droughts that could trigger global hunger crises. Overturning ecosystems, devastating species extinction, burning and withering forests, acidified oceans. Failed states, huge numbers of people on the run. Rising sea levels devastating our coasts. That's not all: "What happens when the most important tipping points are exceeded is unclear," says Laura Schäfer from Germanwatch. “It is also unclear which part of this is irreversible.”

Eine gerade im Fachmagazin »Nature« erschienene Studie von Wissenschaftlern der Universität Shenzhen beziffert die erwartbaren Schäden durch den Meeresspiegelanstieg. Allein der Verlust an Ökosystemleistungen etwa durch die Zerstörung von Feuchtgebieten würde von 2030 bis 2100 rund 100 Milliarden Dollar betragen – pro Jahr. The loss of sealed areas and arable land is not taken into account. The countries most affected in relative terms include Egypt, Bahamas, Iraq and the Netherlands.

However, another serious side effect of global warming is already occurring almost unnoticed in the sea: as the metabolic rate of animals increases with temperature and they cannot compensate for this with increased food intake, they shrink. According to researchers, the body size of fish decreases by up to 22 percent for every degree of warming. This would also affect tuna and mackerel, the most commonly consumed food fish worldwide. Especially in poorer countries, they are a source of income and an important food source for tens of millions. Most people can do without luxury violins - many other consequences of climate change pose a threat to the existence of vulnerable groups.

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