Israel | Election with no clear winner

Gadi Eisenkot, chairman of the Yashar party, waves the Israeli national flag at an election rally in Tel Aviv. The opposition candidate declared in the early hours of October 28 that Israel had chosen change and against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Photo: AFP/Maya Levin It will likely be difficult for the parties elected to Israel's new parliament (Knesset) to form a government. Neither the right-wing to right-wing extremist bloc led by incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor the opposition camp around former army chief Gadi Eisenkot have the required majority in parliament. 120 seats are up for grabs, so at least 61 are necessary for at least a wafer-thin majority to form a government. And for a stable government there should be a few more votes beyond the absolute majority.

What currently appears to be a stalemate between the government and opposition camps is actually not a stalemate, as the two Arab parties Raam and the United List have around 18 to 19 seats in parliament - enough to help the opposition alliance, which currently has 48 seats, achieve a solid majority. But opposition leader Eisenkot wants nothing to do with the Arab parties. Why?

Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the left-wing nationalist Palestinian party Balad, has the answer. He told the Arabic TV channel Al-Jazeera that "racism" was preventing Israeli leaders from forming a coalition with Arab-led parties to replace Netanyahu. And he becomes even clearer: "If someone who is running as a candidate for prime minister says that he doesn't want to sit at the same table with 20 percent of the population... then that is racism. And racism is ugly - regardless of whether the victims are Jews or Arabs." Eisenkot deprives 20 percent of the population of their legitimacy. "This is a point that we have to address."

Shehadeh sat in the Israeli parliament for the left-wing United List from 2019 to 2022. He also wanted to run in this election, but the Central Election Commission wanted to exclude his candidacy because he allegedly denied Israel's existence as a Jewish and democratic state and supported the armed struggle against Israel. At the beginning of October, Shehadeh forestalled a Supreme Court ruling that ultimately excluded him from the parliamentary elections solely because of his support for the armed struggle and only used an article on two news sites from October 8, 2023 as evidence of this. All this came against the backdrop of efforts by the authorities to prevent Arab parties from taking part in the election.

During the election campaign, Netanyahu's Likud party repeatedly attacked the Arab parties. On election day, prominent politicians from the Arab-led lists accused Netanyahu of fomenting hatred against Palestinian citizens in the country - as a "scaremonger to mobilize right-wing voters" and improve his electoral prospects.

"If someone who is running as a candidate for prime minister says that he doesn't want to sit at the same table as 20 percent of the population... then that's racism."

According to the TV channel Al-Jazeera, Israeli media reported a statement from the Likud that the election was "stolen through serious crimes by Arab parties that support terrorism and the destruction of the Jewish state." According to this, the Arab-led parties are said to have used, among other things, "banned" software to mobilize voters in order to "steal the election"; They also resorted to “bribery, threats, violence and forgery.” The statement also said the Likud had provided evidence to the Shin Bet and the Central Election Committee to support its claims.

All of this is very reminiscent of the USA and similar allegations made by Donald Trump in the election after his first term in office. Netanyahu's party called on the security forces to conduct a comprehensive investigation and "consistent criminal prosecution of those responsible." According to the Likud Party, the integrity of the elections in Israel was “massively compromised.” According to the news portal “ynet”, the election committee announced that it would examine the complaint.

The situation is therefore extremely tense. What happens next? After the official results are published in eight days, President Yitzhak Herzog will appoint a candidate to form a government - the one who is given the best chance of doing so. Eisenkot and Netanyahu both see the government's mandate as their own. But who will ultimately be the head of government is still unclear.

In purely mathematical terms, Eisenkot's camp could join forces with the Arab parties to achieve a majority. The leader of the Arab Raam Party, Mansur Abbas, who is considered pragmatic, told the TV channel N12 after the election that he hoped to be able to form a majority together with the opposition.

It is also not entirely impossible that parties from opposing camps will ultimately come together to form a new government of national unity. On election day, the right-wing extremist Police Minister Itamar Ben Gwir shared a report from the daily newspaper "Israel Hajom" on Platform Eisenkot has so far rejected a joint government with Netanyahu.

It is possible that neither side will be able to forge a coalition. Netanyahu could then remain in office at the head of a transitional government until new elections are held. Israel is then threatened with a permanent political crisis with new parliamentary elections. There were five elections between 2019 and 2022.

Not much will change in terms of foreign policy. Observers in Israel assume that there is likely to be another war with Iran - even in the event of a change of government. The Wall Street Journal, citing informed sources, reported that the US had asked several Arab Gulf states to prepare for a short, intensive military operation after the US midterm elections. These are due on November 3rd.

A drastic change of course in Palestinian policy is also considered unlikely, as most parties in the more liberal opposition are against the establishment of a Palestinian state. According to observers, the violence and settlement construction in the West Bank should at least be contained in the event of a change of government. In addition, more decisive action against violent settlers is expected. With agencies

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