Inflation | Election in Brazil: Is South America drifting further to the right?

Lula advertising display in São Paulo: »Answer! Will Lula stay or go?" Photo: AFP/Luis Robayo What is the upcoming presidential election in Brazil about? Democracy or barbarism, says Leonardo Grandini like a bullet. Grandini, 24, lanky body, mustache, stands in front of a voting booth on Avenida Paulista, São Paulo's boulevard. He is a politician from the Workers' Party PT, the party of incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. He wants to be re-elected on October 4th.

But whether this will succeed remains to be seen. Grandini is worried. Because the man who wants to beat Lula has made significant gains in the last polls. This refers to Flávio Bolsonaro, senator from Rio de Janeiro and son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. For a long time it looked as if ex-trade unionist Lula could secure a safe victory, but now everything points to a neck-and-neck race. It is almost certain that there will be a runoff election between Lula and Bolsonaro on October 25th.

A small group of right-wingers has gathered slightly away from the Workers' Party stand. They wear jerseys of the Seleção, the national soccer team. Music blares from a box calling for communists to be sent into the desert. A young woman with glasses and a cross tattoo on her arm bustles around, taking selfies. It is Eduarda Campopiano, 23 years old, one of the great hopes of Bolsonarism. For them, the future of Brazil is at stake in this year's election. Four more years under Lula would be a catastrophe. She calls herself a “declared opponent of feminism and the LGBT movement.” Most people don't care whether Flávio Bolsonaro is a sexist. The main thing is to ensure that they can eat meat every day again. Inflation is the country's biggest problem, she says. Young people in Brazil hardly have any prospects anymore.

At first glance, the economic figures don't look that bad: in 2025, economic growth was 2.3 percent, and unemployment fell to historic lows. The government benefited from the stability of the agricultural sector, as well as high export income in other sectors. The resource-rich country is increasingly trying to exploit its geological advantages in the global race for rare earths. A law was recently passed that is intended to strengthen the domestic mining industry.

Nevertheless, the political reality in Brazil remains complicated. Lula does not have a parliamentary majority; the conservative-dominated parliament blocks many initiatives and limits the government's scope for action. With a few exceptions, there were no major social policy changes. The jubilee years of Lula's first term in office, in which massive social programs could be financed with raw material revenues, are long gone.

According to a survey by the polling institute Datafolha, 42 percent of voters rate Lula's current administration negatively, while only 32 percent rate his work positively. This is mainly due to the rising cost of living. Many Brazilians are barely keeping their heads above water as Uber drivers or food delivery people. The security situation is also causing problems for many people. And according to a survey by the polling institute Ipsos-Ipec, crime is the biggest concern of Brazilians, ahead of the long-running issues of corruption, health and poverty.

The fact that there is little talk about content in this election campaign is due to a banking scandal that is spreading widely and dominating the reporting. The banker Daniel Vorcaro is said to have used the now liquidated Master Bank for fraudulent financial transactions and balance sheet manipulation, thereby causing investors billions in losses. Particularly spicy: “01”, as Flávio Bolsonaro is called by his father in a military manner, is himself at the center of the master scandal. The investigative medium “The Intercept Brasil” revealed that he received payments from Vorcaro worth the equivalent of around 10 million euros to finance a film about his father’s life. Flávio Bolsonaro explained that it was a “private donation” and had nothing to do with politics. Nevertheless, the ultra-right senator from Rio de Janeiro fell significantly behind Lula in polls after the revelations.

The election is also likely to be a vote on the relationship with the USA.

However, research then revealed that parts of the Supreme Court were also involved in the scandal. And the right has succeeded in linking the compromised judges to the Lula government, as they were the ones who secured the conviction of Jair Bolsonaro for a planned coup.

Another reason for Bolsonaro's poll high may be what they call "Voto útil" in Brazil, i.e. strategic voting. In addition to Lula and Bolsonaro, a number of other, predominantly right-wing candidates are running. Since they are far behind the two favorites, many conservative voters are likely to ultimately vote for Bolsonaro.

Presumably in response to Bolsonaro's poll high, Lula increased social welfare benefits and expanded subsidies for diesel prices. The government also announced that it would completely ban betting. The topic is highly emotional in a country with widespread gambling addiction.

Internationally, the focus is primarily on the conflicts with the USA. In the tariff dispute with President Donald Trump, Lula took clear positions, did not bow to pressure from Washington and was able to distinguish himself as a defender of national sovereignty. In doing so, he gained a lot of sympathy points towards Flávio Bolsonaro, who had traveled to Washington several times, ingratiated himself with the Trump administration and is said to have even advocated the imposition of tariffs on Brazilian goods. The election in Brazil is also likely to be a vote on the relationship with the USA. Despite some anti-imperialist undertones and historical sympathy for South-South cooperation, Lula does not want to mess with the USA, not even under Donald Trump. Lula is not someone who seeks international confrontation. 

In this election campaign, he is doing what he does best: making every effort and making compromises. Lula is known for his ruthless pragmatism. He again named Geraldo Alckmin, conservative former governor of São Paulo, as his vice-presidential candidate. In 2022 he also forged a broad alliance and narrowly won the runoff election against Jair Bolsonaro. He had alienated some of the bourgeois-conservative voters with his Corona policy and coup plans. Lula is likely to speculate on winning over these groups of voters again - not out of enthusiasm for himself, but out of fear of the return of Bolsonarism. And so in this election campaign, Lula is placing less focus on left-wing identity issues such as anti-racism or LGBT rights, but is placing more emphasis on the cost of living and economic stability.

Overall, the social left had hoped for more from the government. The Lula government has succeeded in pushing forward the abolition of the six-day working week, and a corresponding law is about to be passed. But it neither dared to reform the rigid abortion rights, probably due to pressure from the powerful evangelical churches, nor were there any initiatives to address the unfair distribution of land. Social movements and trade unions have nevertheless behaved remarkably passively and have not organized any major protests in the last four years. On the contrary: they are openly campaigning for Lula.

On the one hand, this has to do with the fact that Lula cleverly integrated some rebellious minds into his government. Guilherme Boulos, for example, an activist in the homeless movement MTST and politician in the left-wing party PSOL, is now secretary general in the presidential office. On the other hand, there is great fear that a scenario like 2013 could repeat itself. At that time, there were left-wing protests against higher fares, but they were quickly co-opted by right-wing groups. The end result was mass mobilizations that ultimately led to the removal of PT President Dilma Rousseff. The motto of many leftists seems to be: Don't wake up sleeping ghosts. 

If the right wins the election, it will be tantamount to the political farewell of the 80-year-old Lula. The left does not yet have an alternative figure that could stand in a future election. The right, on the other hand, has a number of leading figures who are in the starting blocks. In addition to Nikolas Ferreira, MP and ultra-right shooting star from the state of Minas Gerais, this is particularly Michelle Bolsonaro. The ex-president's wife enjoys great support, especially among religious women, thanks to her close ties to the evangelical churches.

Due to the geopolitical balance of power - right-wing dominance in Latin America, Trump as an ally - a possible term in office for Bolsonaro Jr. could have a completely different impact than that of his father. For many leftists, this is not a normal election, but rather a directional decision with long-term consequences. Hot weeks ahead for Brazil.

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