Globalization | Thick air in Southeast Asia

The eyes of the host Philippines' police and military are not the only ones focused on this year's Asean summit. Photo: AFP/JAM STA ROSA When the 49th summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) begins this Sunday in the Philippine capital Manila, the federal government will also be following it with greater interest than usual. Chancellor Friedrich Merz believes a free trade agreement with the economic alliance, which includes eleven countries, including Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines and Vietnam, with a total of around 700 million people, is possible. The economic and political community of interests makes decisions by consensus, similar to the European Union. Now, like the EU, the Asean states with their different political systems are not all green. A dispute over air pollution caused by slash-and-burn agriculture is currently dominating. What unites the countries is the concern that China could increasingly unilaterally determine the economic rules of the game. 

The German government sees it very similarly: Chancellor Merz recently campaigned for an alliance of the Central Powers on his five-day trip to Asia. "If global supply chains are politically exploited, if free access to key technologies is made more difficult, if securing raw materials becomes power politics, then the growth, prosperity and ultimately the security of entire regions are jeopardized," he told European and Japanese business representatives. The idea of ​​a global alliance of middle powers that advocates a rules-based (free) trade order and takes a stand against the economic pressure of the major powers China and the United States is also circulating in Asia.

In a keynote speech in Singapore that attracted international attention, the CDU politician took up an idea from Canada's liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney, who had advocated an alliance of the middle powers at the World Economic Forum in Davos. According to Merz, the world is only at the beginning of a new era in which previous international rules are losing importance and major powers are increasingly acting according to the “law of the strongest”. The aim is for Germany and other central powers to “sit at the table and not end up on the menu.”

What unites the Asean countries is the concern that China could increasingly unilaterally determine the economic rules of the game. 

Merz's gastronomic plans are not met with unanimous approval everywhere. Some EU countries like Poland prefer to continue to rely on special relations with the USA, others like Hungary benefit from China's investments in Europe or feel pushed to the sidelines as smaller countries. An alliance of middle powers would also further weaken the World Trade Organization, which sees itself as the guardian of globalization. 

Japan and South Korea, for their part, are improving historically strained relations and are certainly open to cooperation with other middle powers. Nevertheless, Merz also encountered skepticism because the EU is isolating itself with its planned Made in Europe requirements. The EU Industrial Acceleration Act is primarily intended to protect car manufacturers against Chinese competition, but it also affects Japanese and Korean manufacturers such as Toyota and Hyundai. Leading German managers from Siemens, DHL and Zeiss, among others - corporations that have a global focus - also recently spoke out against tariffs and other trade restrictions to protect European industry at the Asia-Pacific German Business Conference in Seoul. The Chancellor wants to persuade the EU Commission in Brussels to give in on customs policy. 

Parallel to the restructuring of international economic relations, the EU has concluded so-called security and defense partnerships with twelve countries in rapid succession since 2024, from Canada to Australia to Japan and South Korea. Merz's economic alliance initiative initially targets the trans-Pacific trade agreement CPTPP between Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Great Britain, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam. Germany and the EU strive for close cooperation.

Together with bilateral agreements, for example with India and the South American confederation Mercosur, a global trade network around China and the USA could emerge in the medium term. And this is where the Asean states come into play. Incidentally, Chinese President Xi Jinping was invited to the three-day summit, but he canceled. Shortly afterwards, most of the Asean members met with him at the APEC summit in Shenzhen, China. On the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Community meeting, Xi is also planning a three-way summit with US President Donald Trump and Russian head of state Vladimir Putin. Germany and the EU are no more “at the table” than the Asean heads of government. But economic policy pressure on the major powers is increasing, from Europe, South America and Asia.

This article cost you nothing. Us: research, production and technology. We saved on office rent as well as printing and distribution. And we gave up salary. Nevertheless, the calculation doesn't work without you. We need 300,000 euros by the end of the year. You pay what you can, in return we keep writing.

No paywall, no small print, just one goal: that nd stays.