AfD wins the election | “A black day for Saxony-Anhalt”

"We have made history," declared AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund on election evening Photo: Hendrik Schmidt/dpa After a record result for the AfD in the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, an AfD government became possible over the course of the evening, with the BSW could become the kingmaker. After counting 2,505 of the 2,660 electoral districts (94 percent), the AfD came to 44.8 percent. The CDU experienced a debacle with 16.8 percent; the value would correspond to more than halving the 2021 election result. The Left was led at 8.4 percent, which would be well below its expectations and would still lag behind the SPD and the Greens. After all, the party clearly led in the first votes in three constituencies and was heading towards winning three direct mandates, two in Halle and one in Magdeburg.

At 9.1 percent, the Social Democrats would achieve a slightly better result than in 2021. The Greens could achieve their best result in a state election in Saxony-Anhalt with 8.9 percent. The FDP, which recently co-governed, failed to enter the Magdeburg parliament. The BSW seemed to make it into parliament; it was listed at 5.2 percent. The voter turnout of 74 percent was almost ten points higher than five years ago.

The final result of the Wagenknecht party will determine what options there are for forming a government. If the party were to enter the state parliament, the AfD would be three seats short of the majority, which is 42 seats. However, a four-party alliance made up of the CDU, Left, SPD and Greens would only get 40 mandates. The BSW would thus become the kingmaker. If the party fails to reach the five percent hurdle, which became increasingly unlikely as the evening progressed, the AfD would have 41 seats and the other four parties 42. A secure majority for the complicated political constellation would look different.

The AfD was ecstatic about the record result. Top candidate Ulrich Siegmund said that “history has been written in this country.” Federal chairwoman Alice Weidel emphasized that her party had “a very clear government mandate.” Only Claudia Wittig, the BSW's top candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, agreed to this on election evening. She explained that given the result of 44 percent, it would be “completely undemocratic not to allow the AfD to participate in the government.” Federal chairwoman Amira Mohamed Ali, on the other hand, stuck to the model of a party-independent prime minister who should act "with changing majorities, including the entire state parliament."

However, the AfD result caused horror among other parties and in civil society. Eva von Angern, the top candidate of the Left, spoke of a “black day for Saxony-Anhalt.” Robert Fietzke, managing director of the Zora socio-cultural center in Halberstadt, initially commented on the Bluesky social network with a single word: “Horror”. He later called for people to show “solidarity” with the people in Saxony-Anhalt, “for whom things are now getting even harder.” Pascal Begrich, the managing director of the Miteinander association, explained that more than 40 percent of voters voted for a right-wing extremist party was "not just a historical turning point, but a stress test for democracy." A possible AfD government is a “serious threat” for people with a migration background, local activists and civil society. Pia Lamberty, former head of the Center for Monitoring, Analysis and Strategy (CeMAS), said the election result was “terrible.” The direct consequences would “first and foremost be felt by the people in Saxony-Anhalt.”

CDU Prime Minister Sven Schulze appeared shocked by the election debacle. He spoke of a “result that hits us hard.” At the same time, he congratulated the AfD on its election victory and emphasized: "This is democracy." He left it open in the MDR whether he would try to forge a four-party alliance against the AfD, if the numbers allow it: "It is really the wrong time for such speculation." The election results must first be evaluated in the party committees.

“Civil society has rebelled and intervened.”

The Left remains open to joining such an alliance if it can keep the AfD away from the government. “We are ready,” said von Angern. However, one is “not available to say ‘Keep it up!’”. It was also “the CDU’s policies that made the AfD strong.” She still has hope that a “clear democratic majority” will emerge.

The results of the SPD and especially the Greens are probably due to the fact that voters, also under the impression of corresponding campaigns, voted tactically and specifically gave their second vote to both parties in order to help them get over the five percent hurdle. This was evident, for example, in the Halle III constituency, where the left-wing candidate Jannik Balint received 40 percent of the first votes, but the Greens received 33 percent of the second votes. Federal Green Party leader Felix Banaszak spoke of a “huge order and proof of trust”. Susann Sziborra-Seidlitz, the country's top candidate, explained the significant increase compared to the long-term poor poll numbers by saying that "civil society has rebelled and backed down." However, this could not prevent the AfD's dramatic electoral success.

If the outcome of the election continues to be extremely close, the election of a prime minister will be a nail-biter with an uncertain outcome. If BSW moves in, there would effectively be a stalemate between the AfD on the one hand and the CDU, Left, SPD and Greens on the other. Both did not have the absolute majority that is necessary in the first two rounds of voting according to the state constitution to elect a prime minister. If this fails twice, the state parliament must vote on its dissolution within 14 days. If there is no absolute majority for this either, a third round of voting follows immediately. In this, whoever has the most votes is elected. If the BSW abstained and there were no other dissenters, there would still be no winner.

If the BSW did not get into parliament, all four parties apart from the AfD would achieve the required absolute majority of 42 seats by a slim margin. But a single dissenter would be enough to change the majority. In Magdeburg there had been repeated speculation about scenarios according to which individual CDU MPs could help the AfD come to power. On the evening of the election, state leader Schulze was “certain” that none of his party colleagues would switch sides.

The state constitution does provide for a deadline for the constitution of the state parliament. This must be done within 30 days, i.e. by October 6th. However, unlike in Saxony, there is no deadline for electing a prime minister. As long as this has not happened, the current head of government, Schulze, is "obliged" according to the constitution to continue his official duties - and with him "at his request" also the previous ministers, including one from the FDP, who was certainly elected from the state parliament.

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