House of Representatives election | SPD Berlin on the ground

Things went downhill for the SPD on election night. Photo: DPA/Christoph Soeder How tense the mood is in the Berlin SPD can be seen in the unusual silence that the party radiates a few days after the election. Comrades who are otherwise very talkative do not respond to calls or repeatedly assure themselves that they will not be quoted by name. The situation within the party is too volatile after last Sunday's election defeat; they don't want to be an arsonist, they say in justification.

The party was only able to achieve 12.1 percent, compared to 61.9 percent in the 1963 election to the West Berlin House of Representatives. In the future, it will have 22 representatives in the state parliament. “Depressed,” is how one MP describes the mood in the group. Contrary to expectations, many long-serving MPs were not re-elected. The frustration is great.

The first victim of the difficult situation was quickly found. The long-time faction leader Raed Saleh had to resign on Tuesday. He declared that he did not want to run for parliamentary group chairman again. "People no longer attribute us any competence in our core areas and don't know what we stand for," wrote Saleh. "You don't trust us anymore."

Saleh did not miss the opportunity to take a dig at state chairman Steffen Krach. "The strategic decision to conduct a personalized election campaign without any factual polarization and the underlying assumption that a woman with a migrant background is not capable of winning a majority in Berlin has been refuted," he wrote. Despite his move back to the second row, Saleh seems to see few faults in himself. “Despite an unprecedented effort by our members on the streets and at doorsteps, the SPD campaign was unable to highlight the numerous successes of the party, parliamentary group and Senate and in the districts,” said Saleh, who is not necessarily known for his modesty.

Saleh's withdrawal was probably not entirely voluntary. On Monday, the day after the election, party members called for his withdrawal. “Everyone is waiting for the first shot,” said a member of the state executive committee, who wanted to remain anonymous, to “nd”. Saleh, who was parliamentary group leader for 15 years, steered the party into this situation.

The coup doesn't necessarily fit into simple wing arithmetic. Saleh has supporters and opponents on both the left and right wings of the SPD. He is a pragmatist in the literal sense, who organizes politically flexible majorities for his projects. Saleh is actually considered a party leftist, but led the party into a black-red alliance in 2023. Before his departure, he indirectly spoke out in favor of a red-green-red coalition.

The fact that they wanted to get rid of Saleh is less due to his political positions than to the desire to get a fresh look. “It’s not about just replacing the top,” says one group member. A completely new working style must be found in the group in order to cope with the new role as the smallest group. “Our political survival depends on it,” they say. The “Tagesspiegel” recently reported that a dual leadership consisting of top candidate Steffen Krach and parliamentary veteran Derya Çağlar should be elected at the parliamentary group meeting next Wednesday.

However, the group doesn't have much time to think about itself. The wheels of political business continue to grind mercilessly. While the SPD is still operating without a recognizable leadership, the Left is already inviting so-called preliminary explorations. The CDU, the alternative to the left as a coalition partner, has so far held back both publicly and reportedly behind the scenes.

Whoever leads the SPD into the explorations could well be crucial to their outcome. Traditionally, this role falls to the executive state board. The party left dominates here. This is probably one of the reasons why there have recently been demands from party rights to include members of the parliamentary group in the delegation for the explorations.

Only 22 MPs will belong to the SPD parliamentary group in the next legislature.

If you ask around among officials and MPs, many consider a coalition with the CDU to be the least likely option. This would only have a three-vote majority in the House of Representatives. There are several members of the Green Party who would hardly vote for CDU politician Stefan Evers as governing mayor. And some members of the SPD also find this difficult to imagine. Kai Wegner (CDU) had to go to the third round of voting in his election as Governing Mayor after he had previously failed to achieve the required absolute majority twice.

Conversely, that doesn't mean that red-green-red is a foregone conclusion. Another alternative is being actively discussed: the SPD could officially go into opposition and support a minority senate made up of the Left and the Greens. This solution would have “charm,” says one MP. “Then you don’t have to go along with every nonsense.” Steffen Krach is also said to have signaled internally that he was open to this simulation game.

Supporters of this model see tangible advantages: the Social Democrats could still influence the government program through the state budget resolution. “We still have options,” says one member of parliament. Without direct government responsibility, the SPD would have the opportunity to reorganize itself and formulate its own positions more clearly. There is widespread agreement among the Social Democrats that the lack of visibility of their own positions was the main reason for the election defeat.

But the model also has a significant disadvantage: Without its own senators, the administrative apparatus that usually prepares bills is also missing. The staff in the parliamentary group in the House of Representatives would hardly be able to replace this work.

There is also an even bigger obstacle: sympathy for this model among the Left and the Greens is manageable. A Senate without its own majority would be unique in Berlin's history. Stable, continuous government work would be difficult to implement. Sooner or later this would lead to new elections. It is doubtful whether the Social Democrats can then hope for a better result.

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