Burnham’s blunders show lack of national awareness

The UK Prime Minister may have the regal touch in northern England, but he’s been wrong-footed on the constitutional challenges posed by the Celtic Alliance of first ministers from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, argues KENNY MacASKILL

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THE meeting of first ministers of Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland in Cardiff was a historic moment exposing fissures within the United Kingdom.

But while there’s a Celtic Alliance for a photo call, the history and situation of each nation, and part thereof, is distinct and the British Establishment position toward each is different.

Yet, while Andy Burnham may be “King of the North,” he has less sway in the other nations and is far from sure-footed upon them.

His gaffe on a Scottish referendum conflating the constitutional situations of Scotland and Northen Ireland confirmed that.

It’s been rowed back by staffers but put wind in the sails of a moribund John Swinney. The Scottish First Minister couldn’t have believed his luck when, with his demands for a second Scottish referendum running out of road, an opening was given with an Irish border poll enshrined in the Good Friday Agreement. But other than the buzz created around the historic photo call where does it lead?

The history of the nationalist movements in each are different, as is what they seek.

Nationalism in Wales, initially, at least was often based on language and culture. Now, as it seeks to replace Labour in its heartlands, Rhun ap Iorwerth will want to get Plaid Cymru’s feet under the table in government. Running a competent administration and seeking more powers will be the priority.

For Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland, it’s not independence which they seek but reunification with the Republic of Ireland. That rests not just on maintaining power and growing support in the North but on actions to be taken by the government of Ireland.

There’s no doubt that every major party in the Republic of Ireland is committed to unity, but when is the issue?

East Germany being subsumed by West Germany has been a fraught process and in a far larger economy and society, without the sectarian issues which exist in Ireland.

Donald Trump’s comments on a united Ireland brought a smile to many but it is US economic and military actions which are causing difficulties for the Republic of Ireland now.

The Irish government knows that unification is coming and can wait for a more opportune time.

In Scotland, though, the demands are being made now and Swinney has said to his supporters that he’d deliver another referendum. But he has no strategy to achieve one and rules out alternative methods to create a de facto poll.

The Supreme Court shows there’s no possibility of a referendum without UK government approval and hence the repetitive Groundhog Day scenario between Scottish FMs and the UK continues unabated.

That also ignores the fact that the UK Establishment views each of the Celtic nations markedly differently.

It was perhaps best espoused by George Osborne in the Evening Standard back in 2021. Ruminating about the Celtic nations after Brexit, he described Northern Ireland as “already heading for the exit door” and “that most here and abroad will not care.”

That simply confirms what Peter Brooke said decades ago as the Tories sought to broker peace through to more recent declarations by the likes of Gordon Brown. It’s not just that the UK has no strategic interest in Northen Ireland, but that they see reunification as inevitable. There may be some regret at this, but realpolitik dictates otherwise. 

But Scotland is different and Wales is peripheral. Osborne again stating: “Scotland is an altogether different matter. Its history is our history. Its contribution to the world through its literature and philosophy, exploration and art, is our contribution. Its departure — with no disrespect to the Welsh — would represent the end of the United Kingdom.” 

Scots might well see high-handed arrogance in those comments. The situation is in some ways akin to relations between Russia and Ukraine before Putin’s brutal invasion, with one side seeing an insubordinate little brother and the other an overbearing big cousin.

Scots might sneer that the English elite like to shoot and fish in our hills and glens or send their offspring to Edinburgh or St Andrew’s universities. But, whatever is meant, it does show that the British Establishment views Scotland differently and particularly distinctly from Northern Ireland. 

As Osborne wrote: “The rest of the world would instantly see that we were no longer a front-rank power or even in the second row.”

There could be consequences with United Nations security council membership status threatened and with reductions in rights or access across the globe. That’s why Scotland is viewed differently and this is even before you consider the economic difficulties.

A cursory glance at a National Energy System Operator (NESO) map shows the importance of Scottish renewable energy supply for metropolitan England, adding to existing North Sea fossil fuels. It’s an economic resource not just a geopolitical necessity. 

So, Swinney will continue to be rebuffed and the nations in the Celtic Alliance will still be treated differently. He’ll be left to deal with increasing frustration within his own ranks, never mind the wider independence movement, which has already decided he’s not up to it.

But that doesn’t mean that Andy Burnham’s kingdom is united or him in clover. Scots are thrawn (stubborn) folk, there’s many who might not be persuaded of independence but object to the rejection of their right to decide that for themselves.

There’s also a democratic issue. It cannot be right to just say No. A trigger mechanism for a referendum must be established.

Burnham should also realise that although polls are close and the likelihood of an imminent referendum or independence makes them hypothetical, there’s a huge gamble.

In 2014, the risk for Scotland was in leaving the UK but if the economy and austerity worsens and Nigel Farage or his ilk threaten, then it’s staying that becomes the gamble. If an iceberg is looming, many will jump ship.

Holyrood and every party within it must up its game, dissatisfaction is palpable and understandable. But metro mayors won’t satisfy the needs and wants of the Scottish people, significant further devolution will be required.

If not, then someone other than Swinney or events beyond his control might see Burnham’s kingdom dissolve.

Kenny MacAskill was Scottish justice secretary from 2007-14, and served in the Scottish Parliament from 1999-2016 and the British Parliament from 2019-24.