Burnham must turn words into action without delay

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Two polls published yesterday show it back in first place. The surveys, based on larger samples and deploying the MRP method to forecast individual constituency outcomes, predict Labour coming a comfortable first place in any early election.

However, both also showed the party falling well short of a Commons majority, an outcome which would likely force Andy Burnham into some form of coalition arrangements with the Liberal Democrats.

And Labour’s predicted share of the poll is still shy of 30 per cent and well down on the 34 per cent won at the general election, which was itself nothing to shout about.

This underlines the fragile, tentative and distinctly muted nature of the “Burnham bounce.” It certainly reflects general relief at the departure of the awful Keir Starmer, but not much more than that.

So far, the new Prime Minister has talked an ambitious game, denouncing the overweening influence of the international money markets on government policy, and pledging to reverse the “wrong turn” taken by the embrace of neoliberalism more than 40 years ago.

Yet there has been little substantive follow-through. Even his clear pledge to establish public control over the crisis-wracked water industry — which must include full nationalisation of Thames Water and should embrace public ownership of the whole sector — has not been acted on.

Rather, the new government has committed itself to respecting the same constraints as the old one. These include Treasury rules on debt and spending; a commitment to eye-watering increases in the military budget; and maintaining Starmer’s pledges against raising income tax on the wealthy and on big business.

Within those self-imposed restrictions it will be almost impossible for Labour to break out in a new direction. They are designed to reinforce the wrong turn Burnham rails against. There is little in what Chancellor John Healey has said to suggest that his budget next month is going to break the mould.

In terms of addressing the perilous international situation, Burnham’s record is likewise mixed. 

Ed Miliband has driven through welcome new sanctions against Israel, and has found the language to give voice to the anger felt against the Netanyahu regime and Starmer’s long indulgence of it. He has also recognised the role of the mass solidarity movement in driving change.

However, Burnham has doubled down on the Establishment policy of prolonging the Ukraine war and has, indeed, deepened British involvement. That conflict is now critically dangerous, with Russia threatening attacks on British military facilities in Ukraine and beyond.

So it would seem that Burnham is reaching the limits of what can be achieved by affability alone. There is no way that Labour can rest content with its present polling, which would be regarded as disastrous at almost any other point in the party’s history.

It is understood that the Prime Minister’s intention is to try to unite the left and progressive vote behind Labour, while profiting from a divided right.

This marks a break from the Starmer strategy of trying to win over Reform voters, often by pandering to their prejudices. But Labour has lost much of its traditional support on the left and winning it back will not be easy.

For Burnham’s strategy to work requires far more decisive changes than we have seen so far. And working people’s patience, after a lost generation of slump and decay, is far from unlimited.

The Labour conference is an opportunity for Burnham to flesh out his intentions. We need to hear a radical agenda without delay.