Trump's crushing defeat

Election victory in the Bible-believing cowboy state: Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico thanks his supporters after his election victory in the state of Texas.

Election victory in the Bible-believing cowboy state: Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico thanks his supporters after his election victory in the state of Texas.

The opposition Democratic Party won a clear victory in the midterm elections in the USA on Tuesday last week. Because of their party color, there was talk of a “blue tsunami,” and the New York Times spoke of a “historic collapse” of US President Donald Trump’s Republican Party. 35 of 100 Senate seats and all 435 House of Representatives seats were up for election. Likewise, 39 of 50 governorships and plebiscites were voted on at the state level. The Democrats' success is comprehensive: Even where they didn't win, they were able to significantly improve their results - across all demographic groups.

In the Senate, the Democrats gained at least seven seats and so far have 54 out of 100, and they are ahead in the counting in two other states; Both seats have previously been held by Republicans. In the House of Representatives they were able to gain at least 42 seats and have at least 256 out of 435 seats, even though the Republicans had tailored many electoral districts in their favor; the result for 14 seats is still pending. At the state level, Democrats also gained at least five governorships and now control at least 28 of 50 states; In two states the outcome is still unclear.

In the agriculture and food industry, which is dependent on workers from abroad, the government's racist deportation policy led to a labor shortage, which also contributed to price increases.

The Democrats thus gained a clear majority in both chambers of Congress, which were previously controlled by Republicans, and can now restrict President Donald Trump's freedom of action, particularly through control of the budget. Not only did they win back seats in states and districts that they had lost in the previous 2024 election, but they did well even in the Republican heartland of the South and Midwest.

This is most evident in Texas. Not only was James Talarico elected there as the first Democratic senator since 1993, the Democrats will also be the governor and the majority in both chambers of the Texas Parliament in the future. They also gained Senate seats in Maine, Ohio, North Carolina, South Carolina and Iowa. In Kansas, Adam Hamilton becomes the first Democratic senator since 1932. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, a Muslim from an Egyptian family, was able to prevail surprisingly clearly against Mike Rogers and thus defend a seat for the Democrats that the Republicans had expected to have a good chance of winning.

El-Sayed represents a course that is – to put it cautiously – critical of Israel. He accused the Jewish state of “genocide” and “apartheid” and attached conditions to its right to exist. However, his success can only be partially attributed to this topic. Like the rest of the country, it was based primarily on three things: First, Trump is incredibly unpopular; Less than 39 percent of Americans approve of his administration. Since Harry S. Truman shortly after World War II, no president has been so unpopular after just two years in office. Secondly, only around a third of Americans support the war against the Islamic Republic of Iran that was started by Trump and has turned into an economic conflict.

By far the most important issue, however, is the increased cost of living. The price of gasoline has risen by more than a third in a year to four US dollars per gallon (3.785 liters). The main reason for this is the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on the Persian Gulf, which is important for global oil trade. In addition, the high tariffs imposed by Trump on imported goods drove up consumer prices. In the agriculture and food industry, which is dependent on workers from abroad, the government's racist deportation policy led to a labor shortage, which also contributed to price increases.

According to a survey, three-quarters of Americans feel the state of the economy is not good or bad, and two-thirds blame Trump. According to the BBC, 39 percent of voters said the economic situation was the most important reason for their decision to vote.

However, the big question for the 2028 elections, whether the Democratic Party should move further to the left or become moderate, has not been answered. Because representatives of both wings, democratic socialists as well as centrists, won.

In traditionally Republican electoral districts, it was almost always moderate candidates who won. In the state of Wisconsin, for example, the farmer's daughter Rebecca Cooke won a seat in the House of Representatives from the Republicans after two unsuccessful attempts. In Kentucky, former Marine officer Zach Dembo won in a district that had always gone Republican since 2012. Overall, moderate Democrats won at least 30 additional seats for their party. Candidates close to the Democratic Socialists of America, on the other hand, all won in Democratic strongholds.

Many people voted for the Democrats with concrete expectations; If they are disappointed, they could quickly turn away again. This increases the pressure on the party to produce results by the 2028 parliamentary and presidential elections. This will likely only work if Democrats cooperate in some way with President Trump, who can veto new legislation. Trump initially recognized - quite surprisingly - the election result and claimed that he wanted to cooperate with the Democrats to a limited extent. However, he later insulted them again on his Truth Social platform as "crazy leftists" and "scumbags", even threatened some with imprisonment and began to sow doubts about the election results on Monday.

Now the Republican side is primarily discussing who is responsible for the defeat. The election results and post-election polls clearly showed that Trump is the main culprit, but many in the party don't want to upset him by saying so. Trump himself accused the media and even the right-wing television station Fox News, which is close to him, of reporting that was too critical of the government, while at the same time claiming that the Republicans would have won if Trump had been elected.

The internal party discussions about the Iran war, which Vice President J. D. Vance cited as the reason for the crushing election defeat, should be taken more seriously. Trump admitted that he was at least one of the reasons.

It is questionable whether Defense Minister Pete Hegseth, who calls himself the “Minister of War,” will be able to keep his office. He is one of the government's most unpopular ministers because of erratic administration that is dominated by right-wing extremist views and numerous dismissals of military personnel. A Republican-sponsored vote on whether Hegseth should be removed from office is scheduled for next week in the US Congress.*

However, the first head to roll was that of a woman. Two days after the election, Trump's chief of staff Susie Wiles submitted her resignation. Her successor will be Stephen Miller, who is considered the planner of Trump's brutal deportation policy and who human rights groups describe as a "white nationalist." The British daily newspaper The Guardian compared the decision to “showing millions of American voters the middle finger.”

Both parties are already looking ahead to the 2028 presidential election. For the Republicans, the question is which candidate can make up for the party's losses in the South and Midwest. Most political observers don't trust Vance to do this. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in turn, could better address the increasingly important Latino voter group. However, the involvement of both politicians in the unpopular Trump administration could reduce their chances.

Among the Democrats, the left-wing MP Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the outgoing Governor of California, Gavin Newsom, are considered favorites. After his clear re-election in Georgia, Senator Jon Ossoff is also in discussion; after all, he has proven that he can appeal to voters outside of the Democratic heartlands on the West Coast and in the northeastern states. This is exactly what will be necessary to follow the successes in the midterm elections with a victory in the presidential election.

*Addendum: On Tuesday, November 10, after press time, the House of Representatives rejected the motion to begin impeachment proceedings against Hegseth. Republicans voted almost unanimously against Kentucky Republican Rep. Thomas Massie's resolution, which Democrats also supported. Hegseth will remain in office for the time being.