“Sánchez has little to lose”

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) has called early elections for November 29th; all 350 seats in the House of Representatives and 209 of 267 seats in the Senate will be re-allocated. What happened?

It's a combination of factors that Sánchez wants to take advantage of. The housing issue is important: the government lost the vote on decrees in this regard. But their parliamentary support had been weak throughout the legislative period, and this weakness has now worsened. In addition, there are corruption cases involving the former organizational secretary of the PSOE, important party members and close family members of the head of government, including his wife and brother. At the beginning of the legislative period, the government won votes, but recently lost them (especially since the conservative-separatist Catalan party Junts switched to the opposition camp a year ago; editor's note). Dealing with migration in Ceuta also played a role.

Why is Sánchez calling new elections now? What do the failed housing decrees have to do with this? One should restrict evictions, short-term rentals and speculators and promote housing construction, and one should limit short-term rental contracts.

The new elections immediately after the defeat in the vote on the housing decrees allow Sánchez to put the housing issue at the center of the debate. This means he can talk about housing policy instead of having to deal with corruption or migration. Debates about political issues or international relations are much more convenient for him than discussions about corruption cases in his party or family.

Are there any signs that the government might be successful with this? How are the other parties approaching the election campaign, for example the conservative Partido Popular, the right-wing extremist party Vox or the left-wing electoral alliance Sumar?

I think Sánchez has little to lose. Most polls point to a defeat for the PSOE and a victory for the right and the far right. But the competition takes place less between the PP and PSOE than within the two political camps. The PP competes primarily with Vox, while the PSOE struggles less with the PP than with the danger of falling voter turnout. The biggest risk for left-wing parties is that their voters will not vote. The housing issue affects broad sections of the population and could mobilize people who do not see themselves as left-wing: young people who are dependent on their parents due to high rents, employees with low wages and older people. Sánchez is trying to use this mobilization effect.

What has the government achieved? How does the population perceive their work and what does the data say?

Macroeconomically, Spain is doing relatively well: unemployment has fallen, the economy is growing and inflation has been partially contained. In addition, at the initiative of Spain and Portugal, a special regulation was implemented on the EU energy market that limits the price of the gas used to generate electricity. In addition, the statutory minimum wage was raised and the labor market was reformed, creating more permanent jobs.

However, the perception among the population is rather negative. Inflation is putting a strain on households and fuel prices have also risen. Above all, the government has failed to solve the pressing housing problem. Because corruption cases have come into focus, the population's perception of the economic situation is significantly worse than objective economic indicators would suggest.

Last week two high-speed trains collided. At least 69 people died. Transport Minister Óscar Puente has now resigned. Who is responsible for the train accident and what impact could it have on the election campaign?

The accident is currently under investigation. There were targeted leaks from government circles that indicate failure on the part of the train driver. However, it is the second fatal train accident this year. While ten days ago the government managed to focus the discussion on the issue of housing and the fear of the extreme right joining the government, there is now discussion about whether the government is responsible for the deaths of dozens of citizens.

In the previous parliamentary election in 2023, the PP became the strongest party. But its leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo was unable to get a government majority. What distinguishes Sánchez from Feijóo when it comes to reaching political agreements?

In Spain, too, the person who receives the support of a majority of parliament becomes prime minister. Feijóo's problem is that he can only form his majority with the help of Vox. If the seats of PP and Vox are not enough for a majority, they need other parties. But no one in question wants to form a coalition with Vox.

What agreements did Sánchez make with smaller and regional parties?

There was no pact between all parties, but rather bilateral agreements. PSOE and Sumar agreed on programs for labor market reform, housing and tax policy. The PSOE then concluded agreements with Catalan parties such as Esquerra Republicana (ERC) and Junts on the financing of the regions, territorial issues and the transfer of responsibilities in rail transport. It also pardoned politicians convicted of their involvement in the failed attempt to declare independence for Catalonia in 2017.

If an agreement was not implemented, the conflict affected the parties involved and not necessarily everyone else. At the same time, there was no common denominator for the government majority. This largely explains the government's instability.

Coalitions of democratic parties are criticized by right-wing extremist parties, especially if they claim to be election winners. In Austria, for example, the FPÖ describes the ruling three-party coalition as a "loser's light." Is there a similar strategy of delegitimization in Spain?

Parliamentary systems have clear rules. I think it is inappropriate for parties that cannot achieve a majority themselves to question the legitimacy of those that have. Sánchez became prime minister because he received the necessary parliamentary support. PP and Vox have continually tried to delegitimize the government, even as Sánchez was sworn in. Doubts are now being sown about postal voting. This is extremely irresponsible because there is no evidence of any problems.

Polls predict a significant increase for Vox, while the PP is largely stagnating. What options would the PP have to govern if there is no absolute majority in parliament with Vox or if coalition negotiations fail?

There are two major camps: PP and Vox on the one hand, PSOE, the parties of the Sumar electoral alliance and the regionalist parties on the other. Even the loss of two or three seats would be decisive in determining which camp prevails, as has been shown in housing policy. The PP will rely on Vox, as is already the case in several Spanish states.

If Vox demands too much, I think a PP minority government is conceivable under two conditions. First, the PSOE would have to lose so many seats that the party itself would not be able to form a government. Secondly, the Social Democrats would have to abstain from electing the Prime Minister.

Have the parties to the left of the PSOE gained support?

Actually not. The Sumar electoral alliance has lost its importance. Podemos left Sumar's parliamentary group, probably in order to develop its own profile. In view of the new elections, parties to the left of the PSOE are trying to form a broad alliance called Frente Amplio. At the moment, however, there is still disagreement here. In Catalonia, Podemos and ERC are getting closer. In addition, there is a rapprochement between the Catalan Comuns and Más Madrid, two parties of the Sumar alliance. An alliance between the Frente Amplio, if this alliance were to come about, and Podemos is uncertain.

Sergi Ferrer holds a doctorate in political science from the Universitat de Barcelona and teaches at the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. There he is researching democratic attitudes and political discontent in 15 European countries as part of the “Demotradeoff” project. -His research interests are political behavior and democratic attitudes, with particular attention to statistical research.