Point victory for the Iranian regime

Feeling close to Islam's victory: Houthi supporters at a demonstration against Israel and the USA in Yemen's capital Sanaa in April

The Houthis are on the rise in Yemen: Last Thursday, after days of fighting, the Shiite Islamist pro-Iranian militia captured the strategically important port city of Mocha, which until then was held by the troops of the internationally recognized Yemeni government under President Rashad al-Alimi. Likewise, as part of an offensive that began the week before, they captured the city of Dhubab south of Mocha and advanced near the strategically important city of Taiz east of it to the southwest coast of Yemen. But most importantly, they captured the Hanish Islands on Thursday and the island of Perim in the Red Sea a day later. This means that the Islamist militia can now control shipping traffic through the Bab al-Mandab located there, the important strait that connects the Red Sea with the Indian Ocean and thus the Mediterranean Sea with Asia and East Africa via the Suez Canal.

Although the Houthis initially claimed that shipping through the strait was safe, they now have the opportunity to extort transit taxes by threatening attacks on merchant ships and to use blockades as political leverage against the rest of the world, as they did in solidarity with Hamas against Israel from October 2023. By 2023, nine million barrels of crude oil passed through the strait every day, around nine percent of global demand, as well as around ten percent of freight transported at sea, but even after the Houthi attacks from 2023 onwards, around half as many ships passed through the Bab al-Mandab as before 2023.

The Houthi militia is supported by the Islamic Republic of Iran with weapons and money, but also with military technology, and is considered its ally. According to the US government, hundreds of officers from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, the powerful parallel army loyal to the regime, are in Yemen as military advisors. Many experts fear that the Houthis may also use control of the strait to benefit the Iranian regime.

Accordingly, Yemen's President al-Alimi reacted with alarm. As head of an eight-member presidential council, he has to hold together different political camps, including Sunni Islamists, local tribal leaders and the supporters of Tarik Saleh, the nephew of former authoritarian President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was killed by a Houthi sniper in 2017.

Al-Alimi accused the Houthis' "terrorist militias" of military aggression and violating agreements, referring to the unofficial ceasefire that calmed the Yemeni civil war that began in 2022 and lasted until July this year. He also accused Iran of destabilizing his country by supporting the Houthis, causing a refugee crisis and endangering international shipping. Above all, he called on foreign countries to support his government against the Houthis to protect merchant shipping.

Al-Alimi's call was followed primarily by Saudi Arabia, whose government has been trying to contain the power of the Houthis since the outbreak of the Yemeni civil war in 2014. To this end, Saudi Arabia put together an international military coalition against the militia at the beginning of 2015 and also carried out air strikes on the Houthis. These were discontinued in 2022, but were resumed on a large scale on Wednesday last week after the Houthis attacked four cities in southwest Saudi Arabia with drones and missiles a day earlier, hitting key oil facilities and civilian facilities and injuring over 70 people. Last Sunday there were further Houthi attacks on Saudi cities and the oil export port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, where an important pipeline from northeastern Saudi Arabia ends. This is currently out of operation following attacks by a pro-Iranian Shiite militia in Iraq. In July, the Houthi militia declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabian ships in response to a Saudi air strike on an airport, thereby hindering the country's oil exports to Asia.

According to the US news channel CNN, around 200 US military advisors have been in Saudi Arabia for several weeks to provide intelligence support to the army. However, US President Donald Trump rejected telephone requests from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for US air strikes or logistical support. According to him, the Houthis had also contacted the USA. "They don't want to fight with us," he added.

At an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council last Thursday, the UN said 22 of Yemen's more than 30 million people were in need of humanitarian aid.

The escalation exacerbates the difficult humanitarian situation in Yemen, which initially stabilized after the 2022 ceasefire. At an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council last Thursday, the UN said 22 of Yemen's more than 30 million people were in need of humanitarian aid. Global cuts in emergency aid programs, the closures of the straits and the energy crisis are likely to further exacerbate this humanitarian emergency in Yemen, especially as the Houthis continue to obstruct UN aid organizations and loot their supplies.

The situation in Yemen is of great benefit to the regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran, as it strengthens its negotiating position in the economic war with the USA that has been ongoing since the Iran War began at the end of February. By capturing the Bab al-Mandab, Iran's allies now control two important sea routes, which they can use as political leverage, similar to attacks on Saudi oil facilities.

Proof of this is the rise in oil prices to $100 per barrel last week. In the USA in particular, domestic political pressure on US President Donald Trump is increasing ahead of the US midterm elections for the US Congress in November. Polls suggest significant losses for his Republican Party. Although Trump claimed that the war would end shortly after the midterm elections, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal, several of his advisers believed, given Iran's tactics, that it could continue until the end of Trump's second and constitutionally final term in office, i.e. until early 2029.