New thumbscrews — Faultline

Free ring in the diplomatic circus: UN Secretary General António Guterres (right) and Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on September 28th

The annual diplomatic circus came and went: From Tuesday last week to last Monday, thousands of diplomats were again in New York City to take part in the general debate at the United Nations. Heads of state and government from 193 countries once again used their respective speeches before the UN General Assembly to put themselves and their own countries in the best light and to give fiery speeches against other states and especially against Israel. It has now become a ritual that dozens of state representatives ostentatiously leave the room when Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gives his speech to the UN General Assembly - including this time.

But serious negotiations also took place on the sidelines of the major event. These included, in particular, indirect negotiations mediated by Pakistan and Qatar between the USA and the Islamic Republic of Iran in order to end the conflict, which has escalated since the end of February and oscillates between a hot war and a cold economic war. According to the Japanese news agency Kyōdō, Iran made a new proposal to resolve the conflict on Thursday last week.

Accordingly, the Iranian regime has seven demands that must be met by the USA so that Iran would lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz seven days later as part of a first phase. Only then would a permanent agreement to resolve the crisis be negotiated, with Iranian officials making it clear that the Iranian nuclear program would not be under discussion. The seven demands included, among other things, the lifting of the US naval blockade and many US sanctions against Iran as well as the cessation of hostilities throughout the Middle East for seven days, including in Lebanon and Yemen, where allies of the Iranian regime are fighting US allies.

US President Donald Trump rejected the proposal. A US official said the president was in no hurry to sign a deal, especially since the US was in a "very strong position" and Iran's economy was already "collapsing." They will let this “inevitable Iranian collapse” happen instead of allowing themselves to be “ripped off” by the Iranian regime. Trump himself said that an agreement could only be expected after the US midterm elections in November. The Iranian state news agency Irna reported that Iran's delegation rejected further talks with the USA on Monday. However, at the same time, media reports circulated about indirect negotiations on a modified version of the Iranian proposal.

One reason for the US government's self-confident stance is likely to be new sanctions that the US Treasury Department had imposed on the Islamic Republic of Iran the week before as part of its "Economic D-Day" campaign. Unlike previous sanctions, these so-called secondary sanctions will be imposed not only against Iran, but also against individuals and companies in third countries that trade with Iran. On Tuesday last week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced new sanctions against airlines that cooperated with Iranian airlines.

As a result, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Oman, Iraq, Georgia and Azerbaijan suspended all flights from Iran; Turkey also followed suit later. However, flights by Iranian airlines to Afghanistan, Armenia, China, Belarus, Malaysia, Tajikistan and Pakistan are continuing. The chairman of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, threatened neighboring states with consequences if they followed the sanctions. In this case, Iran would ensure that their airports would “no longer be able to operate.”

Bessent also announced that other countries had followed US sanctions against Iranian banks. On Wednesday last week, the Central Bank of the UAE blocked transfers from and into Iran through Iran's largest state-owned bank, Bank Melli Iran. This is due to allegations of money laundering, terrorism and arms trafficking, the Emirati authorities said. A week earlier, Turkey had revoked the license of Bank Mellat, a parastatal Iranian bank that has long been on US and EU sanctions lists for its involvement in Iran's nuclear program. A Turkish investment bank, which has been affected by US sanctions since the beginning of September because of its connection to the Iranian regime, was wound up by the Turkish state a few days later and placed under state control.

The tightened US sanctions policy and the ongoing US naval blockade are causing growing problems for the Iranian economy, which until then had imported 80 percent of its imports by sea. Now many importers have switched to overland routes. However, the majority of border crossings are not prepared for a sharp increase in truck traffic and are significantly overloaded. Long traffic jams have arisen on the Turkish side since mid-September, especially at the Turkish-Iranian border at the Gürbulak border crossing, which is now reached by 1,200 trucks per day instead of the previous 200. The Turkish freight forwarders' association International Transporters Association said the length of the waiting time has quadrupled since the war began at the end of February. Many Iranian truck drivers are upset about this: They report a sharp drop in profits and rising costs due to long waiting times. Although Iran's neighboring countries have expanded existing border crossings or, like Pakistan, set up new border crossings, Amir Roshanbakhsh Ghanbari, the deputy chairman of a state-run Iranian trade organization, accused the neighboring countries of inaction.

But the Islamic Republic of Iran's negotiating position on the Red Sea is currently strong: the Shiite Houthi militia, which is allied with the Iranian regime, has controlled the Bab al-Mandab strait, which is important for international shipping, since mid-September. It is also firing missiles and drones at oil facilities and airports in neighboring Saudi Arabia, driving up the price of oil.

A military adviser to the Houthi militia, Abed Mohammed al-Thawr, threatened in an interview with the AFP news agency with attacks on objects important to the US in the region and the closure of the strait to US ships if the US government decides to support Saudi Arabia militarily or to attack itself. In fact, the US government responded negatively to requests for military assistance from the internationally recognized Yemeni government under President Rashid al-Alimi and the Saudi de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. According to the New York Times newspaper, President Trump canceled planned US attacks on the Houthis shortly before they were carried out on Sunday the week before last and did not reschedule them.

Although the Saudi authorities resumed oil exports from Yanbu on Tuesday last week, it will probably be a long time before four million barrels of oil per day can be exported again.

For once, it was otherwise cautious European countries such as Great Britain, France and Italy that offered military assistance to Saudi Arabia. The British government under Social Democrat Prime Minister Andy Burnham sent an aerial refueling plane to Saudi Arabia. France announced that it would station an undisclosed number of troops and air defense systems at the Yanbu oil port to protect its oil infrastructure from attacks by pro-Iranian militias. Although the Saudi authorities resumed oil exports from Yanbu on Tuesday last week, it will probably be a long time before four million barrels of oil per day can be exported again.

Italy, in turn, is calling for greater EU commitment as part of its “Aspides” naval mission, which has been intended to protect international merchant shipping near the Bab al-Mandab against attacks by the Houthis and against piracy since 2024. The cautious reaction of the EU states to a letter from the EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, who called on the EU states to send more ships to the Red Sea, led the right-wing Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to take the initiative. Last Thursday, Defense Minister Guido Crosetto announced that he would send his own naval mission to the Red Sea to protect Italian ships in the region, citing EU decisions that were too slow. At least if the price of oil threatens to rise further, EU states will definitely take action.