The proxy conflict is simmering

Step towards understanding: prisoner exchange between Druze militias and the Syrian army in Suwayda in February

Syria's isolation is over: On Monday last week, the USA removed Syria from the list of "State Sponsors of Terrorism", on which the country had been listed since 1979. This also ended the last US economic sanctions against the country. The USA had previously also withdrawn the classification of the pragmatic interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa as a “specially designated global terrorist” and removed his Sunni Islamist militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which once split off from al-Qaeda, from the list of “foreign terrorist organizations”. This also means that the US arms embargo against Syria has been lifted. Only individual sanctions against high-ranking officials of the Assad regime, which was overthrown at the end of 2024, as well as against drug smugglers and Islamist terrorist organizations remain in force.

The situation is similar with the European Union. The EU lifted the vast majority of economic sanctions against Syria in May 2025, and most of the sanctions against the Syrian state a year later. The remaining EU sanctions only affect individuals, companies and organizations or prohibit the export of weapons and surveillance technology to Syria as well as the import and smuggling of cultural goods from the country.

Syria's transitional parliament has only made formal decisions such as those on rules of procedure since July.

Al-Sharaa then thanked US President Donald Trump for removing Syria from the terror list. Finance Minister Mohammed Yisr Barnieh described it as a “success for Syrian diplomacy” and therefore a success for his government.

However, the economy of the country, which was completely destroyed in the civil war from 2011 to 2024, is still in ruins. The already high annual inflation rate has risen by almost 30 percentage points as a result of the Iran war, which is also reflected in the weak exchange rate of the Syrian currency: one euro currently costs around 15,000 Syrian pounds. Reconstruction is making slow progress due to a lack of state funds; the security situation is improving but remains unstable. Many weapons are still in circulation and violent crimes remain common given the weakness of the authorities.

The Syrian state has formally incorporated the northeastern regions, which were controlled by a self-governing Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), into the state by force of arms and an agreement. Mazloum Abdi, the former commander of the SDF, which has since been integrated into the army and disbanded, is now an advisor to the Syrian president. In return, Syria's government declared the Kurdish New Year, Newroz, an official holiday and the Kurdish language a recognized national language.

However, Suwayda province in southern Syria, which is located around a volcanic mountain, is still an area that is beyond the control of the central government and is under the control of an alliance of local militias. The vast majority of the province's population belongs to the Druze religious minority. Many tribes and religious leaders in the region had relatively good relations with the Assad regime and remained passive during the civil war or formed their own militias to defend their villages against Islamist groups such as ISIS. Some of the militias also became involved in the smuggling of the synthetic drug Captagon carried out by the Assad regime and Hezbollah.

Since then, the residents of the isolated region have been keeping themselves afloat with humanitarian aid, including from Israel, and with captagon smuggling to Jordan.

It was only from 2020 that the Druze tribes, dignitaries and militias turned away from Assad and then took part in the overthrow of the regime at the end of 2024. An agreement with the Syrian interim government initially failed and in July 2025 it attempted to integrate the region militarily. After serious conflicts and war crimes against the Druze, the Israeli Army (IDF) intervened on the side of the Druze militias. Syria's armed forces had to withdraw and accept a ceasefire and thus de facto autonomy for the region. Since then, the Druze religious leader Hikmat al-Hijri, with the help of a militia alliance that calls itself the "National Guard" and a transitional government loyal to him, has dominated the area that al-Hijri now calls "Mount Bashan," a biblical Hebrew name. Since then, the residents of the isolated region have been keeping themselves afloat with humanitarian aid, including from Israel, and with captagon smuggling to Jordan. The ceasefire with the Syrian army is repeatedly broken, and the “National Guard” also takes repressive action against Druze critics of al-Hijri and his course.

The Syrian transitional government's attempts to negotiate a security agreement with Israel through international mediation have so far failed as a result of the events in Suwayda. Syria wants a return to the 1974 disengagement agreement agreed after the 1973 Yom Kippur War and a withdrawal of the IDF from the UN buffer zone between Syria and the Israeli-controlled Syrian Golan Heights occupied at the end of 2024. However, the Israeli government rejects a withdrawal. Israeli-Syrian relations are also being strained by the conflict between Turkey and Israel. On August 18, the IDF attacked the northern Syrian air base at Abu al-Duhur, citing Turkish military activities and warning that stationing Turkish troops near the Israeli border would be viewed as a violation of Turkish-Israeli agreements.

The transition process also stalled recently. Syria's interim parliament, the People's Assembly, which was only indirectly elected and partly appointed by the president, met for the first time on July 12th, but since then has only been able to make formal decisions such as those on rules of procedure. President al-Sharaa continues to rule by decree based on an interim constitution he issued. With the lifting of Western sanctions, a means of pressure against the Syrian president disappears.