Being there is everything

Values that remain. On September 4th in Tangermünde, the “Association of Democratic Germans for a Sustainable Saxony-Anhalt” recalled the tradition in which the AfD stands

The prospect of an election victory for the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt has dominated the media for weeks. Nevertheless, journalists and politicians were shocked by the election results: with 43.8 percent, the AfD became the strongest party by a huge margin and received 39 of the 82 seats in the Magdeburg state parliament. In doing so, she missed her loudly announced goal of being able to form the state government without a coalition partner. But the result neither feels like a defeat for the AfD, nor can the other parties present it as such. This is because forming a government against the AfD would only be possible if all other parties represented in the state parliament – CDU, SPD, Greens, Left Party and BSW – cooperated. In view of the internal disputes in the CDU over the question of cooperation with the Left Party and the dispute over the continued existence of the coalition of CDU, SPD and BSW in Thuringia, which ultimately led to the dissolution of the BSW parliamentary group in the local state parliament, this hardly seems possible.

The big losers in this state election are the CDU and the Left Party, which is unlikely to be conducive to cooperation between the two parties. It was to be expected that the CDU would lose votes, but the party officials did not expect that the drop would be so dramatic - from 37.1 percent in 2021 to 17.2 percent - as one could see from their embarrassed expressions on election evening.

Only a few people grappled with the fact that the personality cult surrounding the AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund triggered euphoria and hopes of redemption were projected onto him.

The Left Party's election campaign strategy of presenting itself, on the one hand, as a bulwark against the threat of fascism and, on the other hand, as a support of democracy ready for constructive co-government, has not worked. With 8.6 percent, it became only the fourth strongest party, after the SPD (9.3 percent) and the Greens (8.9 percent), which a few weeks ago were still doubtful as to whether they would even make it into parliament. The SPD and the Greens apparently benefited from campaigns for tactical voting that wanted to push the two parties over the five percent threshold in order to weaken the AfD. The fact that the SPD is selling its result as a victory shows how disastrous its situation has been for years. The Greens, on the other hand, actually have reason to be satisfied. Based on their election results, they can actually act as a parliamentary representation of the interests of left-liberal NGOs and the cultural sector in the next few years. The Greens, in turn, were able to make up for the small lead that the Left Party had achieved in the most recent federal election in the east, where the Greens have traditionally been weak.

After the AfD, the second winner of this election is the BSW. After the BSW factions in Brandenburg and Thuringia split up following conflicts over their respective participation in government, the party was already written off by many. The party leadership around Sahra Wagenknecht should see it as confirmation that she not only managed to get into parliament, but will also have an influence on the formation of a government. However, it seems more than doubtful that the BSW can prevail with its idea of a non-partisan prime minister who organizes majorities in an “issue-oriented” manner from time to time. And so the party could either help the AfD come to power or a candidate from the opposing side. As has been shown in Brandenburg and Thuringia, the BSW's internal cohesion is not great. However, one would be needed in order to withstand the pressure of the coming days and weeks, in which there are likely to be many offers. In an interview with the right-wing extremist magazine Compact, BSW top candidate Claudia Wittig formulated two things that her party would guarantee if she had a say: the next prime minister would "definitely not be a Wessi" and there would be "no one who supports any Zionist projects."

The result of the election in Saxony-Anhalt is not only a bitter defeat for the democratic parties, but also for the so-called democratic civil society, i.e. the alliances and networks of left-wing and left-liberal extra-parliamentary organizations and actors. All the demonstrations, workshops, leaflet campaigns, door-to-door conversations and calls for tactical voting have not prevented the AfD's success. This had already become apparent in the weeks before the election. Left-wing and left-liberal campaigns primarily fueled fear of the AfD. There were regular reports of left-wing, migrant and queer activists and artists who were afraid of an AfD election victory and were preparing to leave the country.

In contrast to what has been repeatedly aired in the feature debates of the past few weeks about right-wing extremism in the East, the AfD's electoral success is not based primarily on bitterness, frustration and desire for destruction.

Meanwhile, AfD leading candidate Ulrich Siegmund drove through the country on a Simson, smiling, shaking hands and handing out autographs. In contrast to what has been repeatedly aired in the feature debates of the past few weeks about right-wing extremism in the East, the AfD's electoral success is not based primarily on bitterness, frustration and desire for destruction. Although those who observed Siegmund's election campaign repeatedly noticed the cult of personality surrounding him, only a few people grappled with the fact that it triggered euphoria and hopes of redemption were projected onto him. The AfD's opponents not only harmed themselves by attempting - ultimately unsuccessfully - to get people to vote out of fear of the AfD, but also by their fixation on the parliamentary process and the election results.

This obviously stood in the way of thinking about how to organize effective social resistance against the AfD's political plans. The party's population and cultural policy ideas will not be put into practice by Mr. Siegmund and his supporters from the New Right. This requires teachers, police officers, clerks, doctors, judges and government employees. From this perspective, an episode from the election campaign takes on ominous significance, namely that the deputy federal chairman of the police union (GdP), Sven Hüber, had to resign from his office at the end of August. Hüber had emphatically reminded his professional colleagues that they had taken an oath of service that obliged them to refuse to carry out unconstitutional orders. He then became the target of a media campaign from Bild to Nius. When allegations emerged that he had mistreated a prisoner as an officer in the GDR border troops, he resigned from his position.

The deputy federal chairman of the police union (GdP) had emphatically reminded his professional colleagues that they had taken an oath of service that obliged them to refuse to carry out unconstitutional orders. He then became the target of a media campaign from Bild to Nius.

The federal government is also one of the losers of the election in Saxony-Anhalt. If the AfD does similarly well in the state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on September 20th, it will be difficult for Friedrich Merz (CDU) to remain as Chancellor. The conflicts within his party became apparent when Merz criticized the CDU politician Sepp Müller unusually clearly after the election and accused him of stabbing the CDU election campaign in the back. Müller is deputy parliamentary group leader in the Bundestag and chairman of the CDU state group in Saxony-Anhalt. Before the election, he said that if the AfD had a strong result, it would have a government mandate and that the CDU would not be allowed to enter into a coalition with the Left Party. After the election, Müller reiterated this view of things and also announced that he would run for CDU state chairman.

What is particularly problematic for the future is that many people will perceive the election of the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt as the most effective protest action against the federal government's reform plans to date. Whether compulsory certification from the first day of illness, abolition of pensions at 63 or savings in the healthcare system - various government projects were publicly questioned by the SPD, but also individual CDU politicians, on Sunday evening. So far, neither unions nor demonstrators in Berlin have achieved this in this form. The AfD derives its current strength in the East from the fact that it is the parliamentary representative of a social movement. As long as nothing changes, the party's winning streak will continue.