The Rising Danger of Regional Confrontation

With every passing day, the wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East are taking on a larger regional cast and threatening to meld. The mindless nature of the growing confrontation points to more friction on the horizon.

There is a linkage between the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation and the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran and its surrogates. Last week, Ukraine struck an Iranian commercial cargo ship in the Caspian Sea that was reportedly taking military equipment from Iran to Russia. It took diplomatic calls to defuse the crisis and to dissuade Iran from striking back.

This incident was inevitable in view of Iran’s increasing supply of military aid, particularly Shahed drones, to Russia. In addition to drones, Iran has sent drone trainers to Crimea to assist Russian military forces. The Russians, in turn, are improving the drone technology and sending newer drone versions to Iran for use against U.S. facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain.

U.S. intelligence is involved in Ukrainian targeting of Russian forces, and the Trump administration assumes that Russia is involved in similar activity on behalf of Iran. The United States, moreover, claims that Iran has provided ballistic missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine, but this has not been confirmed.

The U.S.-Israeli invasion of Iran was planned as a short war, but it is turning into an unmitigated, gale-force cock-up. Fighting continues in the sixth month and as many as 17 nations may be involved. Iran launched attacks on U.S. military facilities in Kuwait last week, and an Egyptian port near the Suez Canal was hit as well. Two ships were hit, including a U.S. gas storage tanker. These attacks threaten Saudi Arabia’s use of the Red Sea, needed to gain access to the canal. This was necessitated by the Houthis attacks to close down the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb that connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean.

Israel learned nothing from its failed invasion of Lebanon in 1982 that led to the formation of Hezbollah. Israel didn’t withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon two decades later. In destroying much of the leadership of Hezbollah, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has taken a greater role in Hezbollah’s efforts to maintain pressure on Israel.

There are danger signs in Europe as well. Last week, a Russian cruise missile violated Polish air space and exploded in a rural field in eastern Poland. Russia has been waging a multi-front “shadow war” against NATO members for the past year. Romania destroyed three Russian Shahed-type drones last month, and Moldova has reported Russian penetrations. There have been cyber attacks on European infrastructure as well as Russian involvement in cutting undersea data cables in the Baltic and North Seas.

Meanwhile, there is increasing collaboration of nations in Europe and Asia that no longer have confidence in U.S. credibility. In the Indo-Pacific, Japan has strengthened defense ties with Australia, the Philippines, and India as well as with South Korea. Australia has concluded new agreements with several Pacific Island nations in order to deal with increased Chinese activity in the region. In Europe, there is greater collaboration between Britain, France, and Germany as well as between the eastern and western members of NATO. These arrangements could be difficult to manage, and could foster Russian and Chinese challenges to protect their interests.

Warfare has its own culture, and it often damages the very civil societies that support the use of it. When elements of nationalism and fears of existential threats are introduced, the expansion of force becomes more likely. Self-defense is typically the justification for going to war, but the actions of Russia against Ukraine, Israel against Gaza, and the United States against Iran are excessive. When wars are designed for political gain, it becomes more difficult to accept negotiation and compromise.

Melvin A. Goodman is a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy and a professor of government at Johns Hopkins University. A former CIA analyst, Goodman is the author of Failure of Intelligence: The Decline and Fall of the CIA and National Insecurity: The Cost of American Militarism. and A Whistleblower at the CIA. His most recent books are “American Carnage: The Wars of Donald Trump” (Opus Publishing, 2019) and “Containing the National Security State” (Opus Publishing, 2021). Goodman is the national security columnist for counterpunch.org.