What consequences the election result could have for Brazil

Interview Bolsonaro defeat in the runoff election What consequences the result could have for Brazil As of: October 26, 2026 • 5:27 p.m

He is missing millions of votes, but he does not accept his defeat: Brazil's right-wing presidential candidate Bolsonaro. This brings back memories of his father being voted out. Expert Maihold explains what could happen next.

tagesschau24: The right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro does not want to recognize Lula da Silva's victory. What lies ahead for Brazil?

Günther Maihold: We already experienced that with Bolsonaro's father four years ago. Back then - just like his son today - he did not want to recognize the election results. There were violent attacks on the palace in the capital. It is a bad omen for the future of Bolsonaro's son if he too now appears as a sore loser and is trying to achieve through legal means what he was unable to achieve at the ballot box.

About the person Günther Maihold is a professor of political science at the Latin America Institute at the Free University of Berlin. From 2004 to 2023 he worked as deputy director of the Science and Politics Foundation. tagesschau24: After the election, Lula said that no one had to like the elected president, but he had to govern for everyone. With 51.8 percent of the vote, Lula now has to do exactly that. How can he succeed?

Maihold: He now faces a right-wing majority in parliament, in the Senate, but also at the local level. This requires a lot of negotiation. He must be able to compromise, but his opponents must also be willing to compromise. It has to be about reducing the strong polarization and ensuring that people get along with each other and that predictable governance becomes possible.

The left-wing head of state Lula da Silva has won the presidential election in Brazil. more

tagesschau24: What challenges does Brazil face economically and politically?

Maihold: It is of course a very difficult situation to create similar or equivalent living conditions in this huge country. The key challenges are to control inflation, ensure sustainable economic growth, boost employment again - and at the same time protect the Amazon. This requires a very competent government apparatus and ministers who are able to bring about an understanding here.

tagesschau24: The issue of security was very prominent in the election campaign. What are the challenges?

Maihold: There are several organized crime associations in the drug sector that are present in the prisons with their own structures in the populous city districts and govern there virtually autonomously. There was great resistance to state actions here. Bolsonaro has made this his central theme because, of course, many people see safety on the streets and at home as the central element of their everyday life. Lula has to take this up now.

Prof. Günther Maihold, Latin America Institute FU Berlin, on the election in Brazil tagesschau24, October 26, 2026 • 2:00 p.m. Relationship with the USA heavily strained tagesschau24: If you take a look at the international press today, then the voices from the USA are particularly interesting. The New York Times writes: "Latin America's most influential statesman stops right-wing wave." And the Washington Post comments that the result is a setback for US President Trump, who has tried to build a conservative, US-friendly bloc across Latin America with Argentina, Colombia and other countries. How do you assess this victory in view of the relationship between Lula and US President Donald Trump?

Maihold: This relationship has already been heavily strained in the past due to Trump's solidarity and support for Bolsonaro. He even raised tariffs to get his father released. All of this will now be put under even greater strain because the USA naturally expected access to rare earths and raw materials in order to secure its own economy. Both Lula and the US President will have to find a way here. In particular, they must not remain on a confrontational course all the time, as this would have significant negative consequences for the entire subcontinent.

Lula or Bolsonaro - both presidential candidates are neck and neck before the runoff election in Brazil. more

tagesschau24: What does Lula's victory mean for Europe and the EU?

Maihold: Lula was one of the region's politicians who always upheld the Mercosur Treaty between the EU and the South American states and advocated for the continuity of negotiations over the years. This makes him one of the key partners for the EU when it comes to securing increased economic cooperation with South America and promoting access to raw materials and, in particular, the processing of raw materials in Brazil itself through technological projects. All of these are options that Europe has. And the Europeans should now invest in this to make it clear that they want to present a different type of cooperation than the one that the USA has put forward so far.

tagesschau24: What is Brazil's global role, especially in relation to Russia and China?

Maihold: China is Brazil's largest trading partner. Neither of the two candidates would probably have been able or willing to change anything because the Brazilian economy is very vulnerable to China. Brazil has a relatively close exchange relationship with Russia within the framework of the BRICS states. Although people have always spoken critically about the violation of international law in the context of the war in Ukraine, they are not prepared to support corresponding sanctions from the Europeans. This is also because Brazil is dependent on fertilizer supplies from Russia. In this respect, Brazil will strive to maintain a good relationship with all players in world politics in order to maintain its role as one of the central powers in global business.

The interview was conducted by Carl-Georg Salzwedel for tagesschau24. It has been shortened and adapted for the written version.

This topic in the program: tagesschau24 | News | Oct 26, 2026 | 2:00 p.m