UN report: Earth is heading for 2.8 degrees of warming

Report from the UN Environment Program Earth is heading for 2.8 degrees of warming As of: October 21, 2026 • 9:54 a.m

The consequences of global warming are devastating. The 1.5 degree limit that was actually agreed will almost certainly be broken. But the UN emphasizes: There is progress in climate protection, but time is of the essence.

In the best case scenario, no more than 1.5 degrees warmer since pre-industrial times. The global community actually agreed on this limit at the 2015 World Climate Conference in Paris. But more than a decade later, UN Secretary-General António Guterres makes it clear:

The consequences are already devastating: deadly floods, brutal heat waves, raging forest fires, loss of life, crippled economies and worsening inequalities. “Those who are least responsible are the ones who suffer first and worst,” said Guterres. It is therefore important to keep this exceeding of the 1.5 degree limit as low as possible.

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In order for this limit to be exceeded by just a few tenths of a degree to 1.7 to 1.8 degrees by the middle of the century, global greenhouse gas emissions would have to fall by a good six percent every year until 2035 - compared to 2025, according to a report from the UN Environmental Program UNEP - compared to 2025. In fact, they continue to rise year after year, mainly due to the burning of coal, oil and gas.

“The progress made in recent years proves that it is still possible to reduce greenhouse gases,” says Inger Anderson, head of the environmental program. Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, global renewable energy and power generation capacities have grown three times faster than expected. Photovoltaics was even expanded seven times faster than forecast. On the other hand, the share of coal energy grew more slowly.

The most effective lever for this is a trend-setting policy. But if governments continue as before, the worst-case scenario is that the world is headed for global warming of 2.8 degrees by the end of the century, the report calculates.

Even ambitious promises that countries make in their climate plans could limit warming to just 2.1 degrees: "The emissions gap has now become a leadership gap - and the world is running out of time and excuses to close it," said UN Secretary General Guterres. Governments would have to go much further and act faster.

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There will be an opportunity to do this in a few weeks in Antalya, Turkey, at the 31st World Climate Conference. The Turkish conference leadership had already called on the countries to agree on a global electrification goal.

Environmental organizations criticize this. The goal is good, but only if it is linked to the expansion of clean electricity from wind and sun. It is also about the question of whether and under what conditions industrialized countries pay for climate protection and adaptation in developing countries.

The dramatic images of the floods from Valencia these days illustrate what the UN report reveals. That's why the Secretary General's appeal so shortly before the climate summit is correspondingly clear: "Every fraction of a degree counts. Every year of delay makes the path back steeper. Let's close the gap now."

An earlier version of the post said that according to the UN report, emissions must fall by six percent by 2025. It is correct that this should happen by 2035. We have corrected this accordingly.

This topic in the program: BR24 Radio | News | Oct 21, 2026 | 07:30 am