Search for a candidate with a majority: Merz and the question of the Federal President

Analysis Search for candidate Merz and the question of the Federal President as of: November 5th, 2026 • 4:21 a.m

It should be a woman - that's how far Chancellor Merz has decided on the question of the Federal President. Some names are circulating, but which candidate would have enough support? A decision should be made shortly.

Make as many phone calls as possible - that would have to be a priority for Friedrich Merz this week if he wants to resolve the Federal Presidential question in a reasonably orderly manner. Because next Monday the CDU presidium wants to negotiate a common candidate. According to information from the ARD capital studio, there will be a joint dinner on Sunday evening. Whether Merz manages to unite the CDU and CSU behind a proposal also shows how much his word still counts in the Union.

So Merz has to make phone calls within his own ranks, especially with regional associations that recently demanded that someone from the CDU be nominated. There were also voices who did not want to exclude men or who saw a state law exam as a prerequisite for the office. In the past few weeks, all of this could certainly be seen as an attempt to prevent a CSU woman like the Bavarian state parliament president Ilse Aigner, who was long considered the favorite.

Who will take over the office of Federal President from Frank-Walter Steinmeier? more

The fact that the CDU is in a phase of self-discovery is becoming increasingly apparent in the process. Many officials from the sister party see the fact that a CSU woman is highly regarded as a disgrace. You ask yourself: Why shouldn't the party with the largest number of members and the most seats in parliament also provide the head of state? And in general you often hear: The CDU is “now it’s their turn”.

But Merz doesn't just have to talk to his own people. He cannot present the SPD, which is needed for a majority in the Federal Assembly, with a fait accompli. There has also been an agreement with the Greens for months that Merz will seek contact as soon as he can present suggestions. The goal: to find a candidate who is best elected in the first round and does not need shaky further rounds. Together with the SPD and the Greens, the Union would have so many voters that it seems quite safe.

All of these factors come into play when it comes to the chances of the candidates traded. They are also currently holding confidential discussions to explore their chances at the important executive board meeting and to promote themselves - but it is not clear to all of them whether they actually want the office themselves. Who is in the running?

It was only in the last few meters that her name was brought into play. Claus is a lawyer and has previously been the leader of the CDU parliamentary group in the Hesse state parliament. Hesse, we hear, is one of the state associations that is most pushing for a CDU federal president. That could be exactly the reason why party colleagues have launched Claus as the alleged "Chancellor's favorite" in recent days. It was those circles that called for a lawyer in office in order to supposedly be able to manage future state crises with more expertise.

The problem: Claus is unknown to many people outside of Wiesbaden. It would be the “perfect 125,000 euro question” on the show “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire,” the Bild newspaper wrote smugly.

Ines Claus has a strong regional association behind her, but little national political prominence.

Claus has significantly less political experience than his competitors. The 49-year-old did a lot of volunteer work between the daycare center and the church. But she has only been a member of the state parliament, and thus in expanded top politics, since 2018.

This means that Claus is missing the proverbial thick telephone book in the world of politics. But that could be exactly what is necessary if, for example, the black-red coalition gets stuck again. During his term in office, Federal President Steinmeier is said to have repeatedly urged those involved in various cabinets and coalitions to be more rational.

In addition, the SPD and the Greens are not fans of the proposal. They also argue with Claus' current job as parliamentary group leader. As such, polarization is part of their job, significantly more than is usual for ministers or state parliament presidents, for example. A quick change to a non-partisan role is not credible. Claus has so far left it open whether she even wants the office.

The CDU wants a candidate from its own ranks. more

If the CDU could decide alone, then Bundestag President Julia Klöckner would be their first choice. Even in her current role, she has to act in a non-partisan and state-supporting manner, it is said. From the CDU's point of view, it shows that it can do that. As a former federal minister, the 53-year-old also has government experience, so she knows how coalitions work and how compromises are negotiated.

As President of the Bundestag, Julia Klöckner holds the second highest office in the state.

But the CDU cannot decide alone. And for the SPD and the Greens, Klöckner is “unelectable” as Federal President, as we often hear. Here you get the impression that it is polarizing and seeking a culture war. For example, their decision not to hoist the rainbow flag on the Reichstag during the CSD is mentioned.

Klöckner herself is not said to be averse, but she probably only has a slim chance. If the Union nominates her, the Greens would put forward their own opponent and try to get as many SPD voters as possible on their side. A new coalition crisis would threaten. It is more likely that Klöckner will continue to “only” hold the second highest office in the state.

Julia Klöckner has been President of the Bundestag for three months - and is supposed to maintain the neutrality of the parliament. more

For years, Ilse Aigner has been repeatedly asked whether she could imagine taking on the position. Most of the time she smiles away. But her demeanor makes it clear: the woman from Upper Bavaria wants the job.

Monatelang galt Aigner als Favoritin, doch über den Sommer wirkte es so, als ob Friedrich Merz immer weitere Gründe suchte, um sie nicht zu benennen und das Verfahren am Laufen zu halten. Merz and Aigner have a good relationship, which the 61-year-old even calls “friendly”. They have known each other since the end of the 1990s in the Bundestag. “We ticked similarly in terms of wavelength,” says Aigner. Merz and she love the Tegernsee area, met there again and again and have already been together at the grave of CDU legend Ludwig Erhard.

But Merz is under pressure within the party and is generally not considered a good process manager. Erst seine jüngste Festlegung, dass er eine "Frau der politischen Mitte" vorschlagen werde, macht Aigner plötzlich nach etlichen Turbulenzen wieder zur Favoritin.

Your shortcoming: the CSU party book. Kurioserweise hat Aigner womöglich mehr Fürsprecher unter SPD und Grünen als in der Schwesterpartei, die das Amt am liebsten an eine CDU-Kandidatin geben würde. Some also believe that Aigner's dialect is not well received in the north and east. In conservative circles, if he were nominated, it could be discussed that Aigner would not bring a first husband or children with him. Merz könnte in seinen Gesprächen argumentieren: Mit Aigner als Kandidatin wäre eine Wahl im ersten Durchgang - und damit ein starkes Zeichen der politischen Mitte - so gut wie sicher.

Chancellor Merz has apparently decided that a woman should succeed Federal President Steinmeier. more

Her name has also been circulating for a few months. Prien sees this as a “compliment” without specifying himself exactly. Nevertheless, it is often said in CDU circles: She too could imagine the office.

Prien is 61 years old and would have a special family history: her ancestors fled from National Socialism to the Netherlands in the 1930s, where Prien was born. She is one of the few Jewish voices in top politics in the history of the Federal Republic.

Prien is considered an electable candidate by the SPD and the Greens. So it could be an alternative.

Prien is considered an electable candidate for the SPD and the Greens. In Schleswig-Holstein, she ruled for a long time as a minister in a black-green cabinet. But there are also opposing voices. One point of criticism: As family minister, Prien does not defend her budget - and especially democracy promotion projects - sufficiently against cuts. If the Chancellor cannot get a CSU candidate through in his party, Prien - also as a lawyer - could be an alternative, but then it would still require convincing, especially among the Social Democrats.

AKK, as Kramp-Karrenbauer is known for short, is currently head of the CDU-affiliated Konrad Adenauer Foundation. That sounds like party office, but she interprets it in an almost non-partisan way. She sought proximity to the Greens, for example, and was a guest at a closed meeting of the Green parliamentary group. As head of the foundation, the 64-year-old recently held an event together with the green-friendly Heinrich Böll Foundation about the fact that “morality counts again”. That also sounds like a Christmas speech and state-supporting ideas.

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer is likely to lack the support of Chancellor Merz.

The former defense minister would probably be acceptable to the SPD and the Greens. Nevertheless, their chances are likely to be slim. Ultimately, Friedrich Merz would have to fully support her. And that seems rather unlikely given the two's shared history: it was Kramp-Karrenbauer who snatched the CDU party chairmanship from Merz in 2018 and thus almost prevented his political comeback.

Kramp-Karrenbauer has so far received support from the Saarland CDU, which is not a powerful regional association. If there is no consensus for other candidates, Kramp-Karrenbauer could potentially serve as Saarland's all-purpose weapon for her party.

This topic in the program: The First | daily news | 11/02/2026 | 8:00 p.m. Das Erste | daily topics | Oct 28, 2026 | 9:35 p.m