Frustration among US farmers could cost Trump votes in the midterms

Frustration among farmers in the USA “Are we just pawns?” As of: October 31, 2026 • 5:52 a.m

Farmers are considered an important voter group for US Republicans. But rising costs and unpredictable customs policy are causing frustration. This could be a stress test for the Trump administration in the midterm elections.

The dark green harvester eats its way across the corn field in straight lines. At the front, the plants with their thick cobs disappear into the mouth of the combine harvester, while at the back the tank fills with golden yellow corn kernels.

This has been going on for three weeks for Zach van Arkel and his father to harvest their 800 hectares of soy and corn east of Grinnell in Iowa. But it is anything but clear whether it will be worth it for them this year.

The costs are rising like crazy: fertilizer, pesticides, land costs, machine costs, spare parts. "We're spending a lot more money than we used to, and while we're getting good returns, I'm not sure we're actually making more," says Zach.

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He paid $500,000 for his fertilizer alone this year. This is also due to the Russian war in Ukraine. Each tank of diesel for his combine harvester costs $1,000. This in turn is also related to the US war against Iran. And yet Zach - like so many farmers in the USA - defends his president.

“I cannot make a direct connection between this administration’s policies and the current circumstances,” Zach emphasizes. "As farmers, we can only control what we can control - and sleep peacefully at night knowing we did our best."

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The corn goes from the harvester onto the grain wagon, then it is poured into the silo until it is sold. Where and at what price is uncertain. The market now fluctuates more in one day than it used to in the entire year. Depending on the current tariff policy of the Trump administration. Depending on the subsidy promise. And depending on the “deal or no deal” via soy for China or corn bioethanol for Canada and Europe.

Zach just shakes his head at that. "The government interferes so much in our business that you ask yourself: 'Are we still running this company or are we just pawns?'" Farmers bear all the risk, he complains. Although they could have an influence through their voting decision, Zach wonders whether politicians even listen to them: "Or do they only listen to those who give them money for their election campaign?"

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At Iowa State University in Aimes, Dr. Sunghun Lim the agricultural damage caused by political uncertainty. His conclusion: The farmer business model is currently having a difficult time in the USA. “Uncertainty causes costs,” he concludes.

If the USA and Canada conclude a trade agreement or the USA and China, then there is a set level of burden. That's fine, explains Lim. "The problem is the uncertainty: What else could happen?" Farmers must protect themselves against these risks.

In the USA there is government insurance for farmers against crop failures, bad weather and price declines. But there is no objection to the decisions of their own government. In recent years, agreements have been made and broken again and again. Then new ones hit and broke again.

Governments and companies with high market power can cope, but farmers and small businesses are not resilient enough to these shocks.

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Berleen Wobeter and her husband Pete also want more stability. Their small farm near Toledo, Iowa produces corn, soy and beef. The herd actually needs to be replenished right now. But since Trump's announcement that he would import cheap beef from Brazil in order to slow rising prices at the meat counter, US cattle farms are threatened with losing business.

“Farmers actually vote Republican,” Berleen says. Many would still say that Trump is a businessman and therefore knows what he is doing. "Others of us are absolutely certain that's not the case."

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Berleen feels significantly more frustration in farming. In the midterm elections, she is running for the Iowa Parliament herself - as the Democratic Party candidate. But above all, she says, as a farmer who has had enough of the politics of both parties.

She asks herself, "Is anyone really taking the time to think about these big questions and take a long-term perspective, or is this just about arguments and scoring political points?" She finds this frustrating.

The corn and soybean harvest in the fields in Iowa is still ongoing. The political one will be rolled in on Tuesday.

This topic in the program: tagesschau.de | US election: Frustrated farmers and burdened agriculture | Oct 30, 2026 | 7:38 p.m