Negotiations in Abu Dhabi: Europe at the table

After months of standstill, negotiations for a possible ceasefire in the war in Ukraine are getting back on track. At the initiative of the US government under Donald Trump, delegations from Ukraine and Russia are currently speaking in Abu Dhabi. The hope: a ceasefire in Ukraine, as soon as possible, before winter sets in.

Part of the negotiations are some kind of security guarantees, which the Europeans in particular should guarantee. “The tension is high,” said Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and one of the US negotiators. US special envoy Steve Witkoff made similar comments.

The USA is not so much pursuing humanitarian interests in the negotiations, but rather wants to enter into more economic relations with Russia. The Kremlin's strategy of attacking civilian infrastructure in Ukraine and thus making life difficult for the population shortly before the start of winter is currently working. As we speak, the Russian army's attacks on Ukraine continue unabated.

After all, Ukrainian media are reporting an agreement “on a large exchange of prisoners of war in the near future,” citing sources in the Ukrainian negotiating group.

At the same time, Ukraine must seek further military and financial aid from Europe. The so-called Coalition of the Willing, led by Great Britain, has been holding maneuvers in Poland since Monday. The whole thing should take around two weeks. It's about the preparations for the eventuality of a ceasefire and how this could then be secured. The armies from 11 countries in the coalition are already practicing.

Meanwhile, only Russia, Ukraine and the USA are sitting at the negotiating table in Abu Dhabi - the Europeans have to watch. A group consisting of the EU, NATO, Italy, Great Britain, France, Germany, Ukraine and the USA published a joint statement in advance. In it they made it clear that an existing security architecture had to be built on. Without the Europeans, lasting stability cannot be guaranteed.

So you want to have a say. But how exactly this can work is still unclear. This week the European Political Community will meet in Dublin, and the day after there will be an informal EU summit, also in Dublin. Last week, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni sent an angry letter to EU Council President António Costa – “urgently” asking for clarity.

Meloni's initiative is certainly motivated by domestic politics, but it actually addresses a gap that the EU member states have not yet closed after more than four and a half years of war.

Ireland currently holds the EU Council Presidency and therefore invites you to the Irish capital. At the latest at the EU summit shortly before Christmas in Brussels, the 27 EU member states want to come to a common position and, above all, decide who should actually speak for the EU on the subject of the Ukraine war.