Caring relatives: More work at home, less work on the market

The growing compatibility conflict between caring for relatives and gainful employment will put a noticeable strain on the labor market in the future. At least that's what an analysis published on Tuesday by the Bertelsmann Foundation and the Prognos research institute assumes. If more and more people of working age care for their relatives at home, there could be a labor shortage of 229,000 full-time positions by 2045.

Many people are already reducing their working hours or giving up their jobs completely to look after relatives. According to the analysis, around 184,000 full-time positions will be lost in 2026. Demographic change and an aging society could increase this loss by almost 25 percent by 2045.

“If the situation of informal carers does not change, the aging of society will deprive the labor market of more and more employment potential over the next 20 years – especially when every worker is urgently needed,” says Eric Thode, labor market expert at Bertelsmann.

There are currently around six million people in need of care in Germany. According to Bertelsmann, three quarters are cared for by their relatives at home. This means that around 4.6 million people – 8.7 percent of all people of working age – are already providing care today. By 2045, this share could rise to 13.3 percent.

The growing compatibility conflict would particularly put a strain on women: they currently make up almost two thirds of the carers. At the same time, women are more likely to provide very time-consuming care, at least ten hours per week. For the year 2045, the model calculation assumes that around 580,000 women will work less or not at all because of their care responsibilities. Of the total 229,000 full-time equivalents lost, a full 173,000 were women.

“We must not pay for the growing need for care with regressions in equality,” says Michaela Hermann from Bertelsmann. If women further limit their employment or give it up, “they lose their career prospects – and the labor market urgently needs skilled workers”. The labor market expert calls for politicians and companies to better support relatives: through more flexible working hours, home office options and help with re-entry.

Eugen Brysch, board member of the German Foundation for Patient Protection, warns against viewing the care of relatives primarily as a loss for the labor market: "Without a doubt, more and more caring relatives will be missing from the labor market. But without their working hours, caring for five million people at home would not be possible."

According to Brysch, caring relatives relieve the care system of 206 billion euros annually. This would be offset by pension insurance benefits for relatives of just five billion euros. As part of the reform of nursing care insurance, there was a brief discussion about reducing it. Brysch also criticized the insufficient financial recognition of family care and the cuts in preventive and short-term care planned in the reform law.

The publication of the study comes amid a heated pension debate. The government factions are currently apparently considering whether care and parenting periods will continue to be taken into account as contribution years for the pension from 45 contribution years. “A socio-political scandal” that would particularly affect women, says VdK President Verena Bentele: “Such a regulation would be completely at the expense of women – precisely the women who do care work and who are therefore disproportionately affected by poverty in old age.”