OECD economic outlook: The global economy is more robust than expected

Pandemic, tariffs, energy crisis – the global economy has recently been subjected to many stress tests. However, the high energy prices as a result of the Israel-US war in Iran did not have as strong a negative effect on growth as forecast, calculates the OECD, the industrialized nations association, in the current world economic outlook, which was presented in Paris on Wednesday.

The OECD therefore expects global growth of 2.9 percent for 2026 and 3.0 percent for 2027. This means that it is revising the forecasts for this year slightly upwards compared to June.

The OECD cites additional deliveries from countries outside the Gulf states and government support measures as well as significant oil stocks in many countries as reasons why the energy crisis has at least been dampened globally. The fact that China drastically reduced its energy imports helped to ease the pressure on the market.

This was also confirmed by Geraldine Dany-Knedlik from the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) at an event organized by the Berlin OECD office on the economic outlook. “However, the market situation was different at the beginning of the year as there was a surplus of crude oil,” she adds. That also contributed to a dampening. And: The question is how long China's lower demand will last.

“This shock is not yet behind us, it continues to have an impact on the economy,” warned OECD Secretary General Mathias Cormann when presenting the report. “The buffers have become smaller, global oil reserves are currently significantly lower,” said Cormann. Gas reserves in Europe are currently at their lowest level in more than 15 years. At the same time, the crisis in the Middle East has not been resolved.

The OECD also warns of an increase in food crises. Global food prices have risen by 8 percent. The reasons for this include crop failures due to drought and extreme weather events, exacerbated by climate change. Experts expect a particularly strong El Niño phenomenon at the end of the year. But Russia's blockade of Ukrainian grain exports is also making the situation tense.

The OECD also warns of increasing national debt in the G20 countries and thus higher debt service costs and credit costs for companies. More than half of the G20 countries have inflation rates that are above the central banks' inflation targets.

Artificial intelligence technology is a “double-edged sword,” said Cormann. Faster adoption could boost productivity and growth, but AI infrastructure requires huge capital investments - if profits fall, investments could fall dramatically.

According to the OECD, the AI ​​market contributed significantly to the positive growth forecast for 2026. In the twelve months to July, production of computers and electronics rose by 10 percent in the EU and by 12 percent in the USA, which is more than ten times the growth of the rest of the industry. AI-related products now account for two-thirds of global trade in goods, says Cormann.

The OECD also raised its forecast for Germany by 0.4 percentage points compared to June and expects growth of 1.1 percent for 2026. The increase in exports in particular contributed to this.

Achim Truger, who sits on the Economic Advisory Council, said in Berlin that the so-called fuel discount had a short-term inflation-lowering effect. However, it does not fall under the targeted support measures recommended by the OECD for the people and companies most in need. On the contrary: “It relieves the burden on rich speedsters.” At least it should be accompanied by further regulations, such as a speed limit and progressive taxation.