Left majorities in the federal government: A fever dream in red-green-red

Andrea Ypsilanti is currently on vacation, but she can't keep her hands off her cell phone: the news from Berlin is stirring her up. “I have déjà vu every day right now,” she says. And: “It seems more violent than back then in Hesse.”

Ypsilanti is something of a figurehead in the long history of red-red-green majorities that failed to form a government. In 2008 she wanted to form a red-green state government in Hesse while tolerating the left. It didn't come to that. “Back then it was about communism, today it was about anti-Semitism,” said Ypsilanti.

Bodo Ramelow also often thinks at the moment: “I’ve experienced it all before.” In 2014 he was to be elected the first Prime Minister of the Left. A months-long campaign followed, with up to 4,000 people protesting against his election on Erfurt Cathedral Square. “Something like that gets under your skin,” says Ramelow.

Today the excitement is great again. Since the Left Party won the elections in Berlin last Sunday, political opponents and actors such as the New Social Market Economy Initiative have been working to prevent a red-green-red government. Ypsilanti speaks of a “campaign” and warns: “The worst is yet to come.” And Ramelow says: “I can only encourage Elif to have the strength every day not to take it all personally.” Eralp now needs the support of the entire party. “The active support from the Bundestag faction is still too low for me, there has to be more,” said Ramelow.

It's paradoxical. There is actually reason for fans of the color combination to be happy: the Left, the Greens and the SPD have achieved a solid majority in Berlin and have the chance to implement a progressive rent and transport policy in the capital. Leaving aside the issue of socialization, there is a lot of overlap between the three parties. But there is little sense of euphoria in Berlin; the resistance is too fierce.

It remains to be seen whether there will actually be a red-green-red coalition. But some people in Berlin are already thinking ahead: If it works in Berlin, is there also a chance in the federal government?

In purely mathematical terms, such a three-party coalition wouldn't be in a bad position. In surveys, up to 40 percent say that voting for one of the three parties would now be a federal election. That wouldn't be enough, but it would be more popular than for black and red. In general, three-way alliances are likely after the next election.

There has recently been some movement between the parties and exchanges have increased. The SPD think tank, for example, an association of the Bundestag faction that has long hosted discussions with the Greens and the Left, has been revived with a new board in recent months. On Monday, the day after the state elections, she held a non-public discussion in the Bundestag for the first time with MPs and employees from the Left and Greens.

Also newly formed is the Institute for Solidarity Modernity (ISM), once co-founded by Ypsilanti and recently dusted. Before the parliamentary summer break, Bundestag members Caren Lay (Left), Karoline Otte (Greens) and Jan Dieren (SPD) took over the board. In a joint statement this week, they wrote that the state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania offered “a hopeful look into the future to the rise of the AfD” with the red-green-red majorities. In order for this hope to become more, there needs to be “stronger exchange between the three parties” and “exchange with social movements, civil society, trade unions and science”. The left-wing MP Lay is quoted in the statement as saying that “we must not squander the chance of red-red-green in the two federal states”.

Everyone is paying close attention to what is happening in Berlin now, says a Green MP who would like to have a left-wing option for power, but also doesn't want to dismiss the accusations of anti-Semitism against the left. If the red-green-red coalition in Berlin fails on this issue, it will send a signal to the federal government. If the left draws conclusions and the coalition will come into being, but also.

In recent years, considerations for a red-red-green federal government had subsided and the discussion groups lay idle. The Ukraine war exacerbated differences in Russia policy that had already been an obstacle. A little later, the Wagenknecht wing loyal to Putin left the left, but the left was so weakened that no one dreamed of shared majorities any more.

On the one hand, the resurgence of the left in the last federal election changed the situation again. On the other hand, in the new geopolitical situation, Russia policy is causing mutual skepticism even without Wagenknecht. The differences in Middle East policy are now having an even more serious impact. This topic dominates in the newly formed, activist left-wing faction, while the desire to govern varies greatly there.

This also applies to the party leadership. When asked this week, Ines Schwerdtner did not want to take the opportunity to formulate a federal decision based on the weekend's election results. There she wants to continue to position the Left as a protest party. In the nd, Schwerdtner and co-party leader Luigi Pantisano recently described the goal of wanting to develop the left as a “third pole” in the party system, as an alternative to both the AfD and the other democratic parties. That doesn't fit with red-green-red dreams.

Accordingly, there is little ambition in the leadership ranks of the other two center-left parties to publicly think about a joint project at the federal level. The SPD leadership is currently busy with other things (themselves and governing). The Greens, who are divided on coalition issues, consider such thought games to be premature. First, the left must clarify what it actually wants. This week's anti-Semitism debate has not brought the parties closer together: leading Greens are not talking about a campaign, but rather see real grievances on the left - and are publicly calling for consequences as a condition for a coalition in Berlin.

The leftist Bodo Ramelow is also demanding consequences - especially from the Neukölln Bundestag member of the Left, Ferat Koçak: "Ferat has to clarify his connections to the Remmos and to PFLP-affiliated organizations. If he wants to support Elif, he has to quickly provide clarity."

The Neukölln left-wing MP Koçak came under criticism after the Berlin elections because he maintained contacts with the Remmo clan, a central player in organized crime in the city. Equally controversial is his closeness to Ibrahim Ibrahim, an activist with the United Palestinian National Committee. The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution classifies the group as extremist and sees connections to the terrorist organization Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP). “Anyone who wants to eliminate Israel like the PFLP must not be a conversation partner or a friend for the left,” Ramelow told the taz.

Ramelow advises his party to stay calm and not complain: "Yes, it's a campaign and it works with double standards. But it doesn't help to complain about the fact that Remmo was once a guest at the CDU." The Left must not allow itself to have double standards: "We cannot criticize other parties when they tolerate violence but remain silent when something like this happens to us. We are an anti-militarist party!"

Andrea Ypsilanti fears that the campaign against red-green-red could become even tougher: “The highest level has not yet been reached: the personal attack.” These could be directed against Elif Eralp as well as representatives of the Greens and SPD. “The most important thing is: stay calm and don’t throw dirt.”

The Ypsilanti example shows what is at stake. After the failure in Hesse, everyone involved initially kept their hands off possible left-wing coalitions. In 2013, after the federal elections, there would have been majorities for red-red-green coalitions. The fact that these were not used was due, among other things, to the left's positions on NATO, which made them “unfit to govern”. But also because after the experience in Hesse, no attempt was made to explore commonalities. Ypsilanti is convinced that if red-green-red is to work, it needs to be prepared for the long term.

Andrea Ypsilanti left the SPD a few years ago in a dispute over tougher asylum policies. Nevertheless, she sees a great opportunity, especially for her former comrades, in a coalition with the Greens and the Left. “The SPD is exhausted in terms of program and personnel,” she says. In Berlin, the SPD could show that it can also implement progressive politics. “If the SPD went into government with the CDU again, Berliners would not forgive them.” A failure of red-green-red in Berlin, according to Ypsilanti, would send a fatal signal to voters: “It will cause such frustration, I can’t imagine it.”

Ypsilanti is therefore relying on resistance. “The only way out of this mess is a civilian population that stands up and says: We want what we voted for.”