Planned Ukraine meeting: The fate of Ukraine also depends on EU diplomacy

T he support for Ukraine is becoming less popular in Europe - and one observation is being pushed into the background: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj could currently be rolling in the dust and accusing Russia of seizing the territories in Donbass, but the kleptocratic leadership around Russian President Vladimir Putin would still not back down from its maximum demands in the Ukraine war. And continue to claim areas for itself that it has not even conquered militarily. Despite Zelensky's clear offer of compromise to freeze the war at least on the line of contact and go to the negotiating table, Moscow sees greater benefit for itself in prolonging the bloodshed.

The upcoming meeting between Putin, US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping could lead to Ukraine being carved up between great power projections. The three paranoid old men have demonstrated several times that they are just as indifferent to the local people as they are to international law. At this point, the EU could become involved as a co-negotiator. But here another finding is becoming increasingly clear: Germany, as Ukraine's current largest supporter, is not in a position to make political capital from arms deliveries in order to support the attacked country at the negotiating table.

One reason for this is the maxim with which the EU and the federal government justify their support for Ukraine. They rely on a guiding principle from behavioral economics: Russia will continue this war as long as the expected benefits are greater than the price it has to pay for it. The starting point in Brussels and Berlin is almost exclusively on the second part of this equation: Russia should pay such a high price for its bloodthirsty politics that it will abandon its campaign.

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In practice, this strategy has always proven difficult. This was shown by the tough discussions about the import of Russian oil to Europe, as well as the imports of Russian uranium to Germany, which are still under the radar to this day. At the latest, diesel imports from Russia to the USA are pushing the Western sanctions regime to the brink of its existence - not to mention the pressure on states like India to stop importing oil from Russia.

Yes, the sanctions have hit the Russian economy hard. Putin must make massive use of the state treasury and raise taxes to continue his war. But it's time to address the first part of the equation: How do you stop Russia from benefiting from this war? Putin, Xi and Trump will never ask this question. It would be a starting point for European diplomacy.