“Peace negotiations” in Oslo: Zelenskyj’s defensive campaign against Trump

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj has to fend off US President Donald Trump's latest move. On Tuesday, at a short-term meeting with Trump's negotiator Steve Witkoff in Oslo, he tried to fend off the demand that Ukraine should cede the Donbass in the east of his country to Russia in exchange for a ceasefire agreement.

According to information obtained by the New York Times from the White House and diplomatic circles, Trump is now demanding that Zelenskyj make territorial concessions to Russia in order to end the war. Witkoff has a corresponding suggestion from Trump with him.

In Oslo, Zelensky and Witkoff spoke about US ideas for peace. Joint and bilateral talks also took place with Norway's Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and Finland's President Alexander Stubb. No results were available at the time of going to press. According to Støre, Ukraine has asked its partners Norway and Finland for support in the talks.

It therefore initially remained unclear whether Zelenskyj, in a conversation with Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, who was connected via video, was also confronted with the question of ceding to Russia the areas of Donbass that had not yet been conquered by the Russian army. The US negotiators apparently want to reach a classic “deal” before their visit to Putin in his hometown of St. Petersburg on Wednesday.

According to the NYT, Witkoff should make it clear to the Ukrainian head of state that “there is money to be made for Ukraine if it just drops its objections to an agreement, even if it is largely written on Russian terms.” It is not worth holding on to the occupied parts of the eastern provinces.

The Russian ruler Vladimir Putin had the Ukrainian oblasts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson enshrined in the Russian constitution as Russian territory, in addition to the annexed Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea. Kherson and Zaporizhia in particular are still predominantly in Ukrainian hands. In the Donetsk region, the heavily fortified cities of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka are still held by Ukraine. If Russia had control over them, it would be difficult for Ukraine to hold the western areas towards Zaporizhzhia.

Shortly before the Oslo meeting, Trump said: “Russia has behaved well on the Ukraine issue.” Before heading off to a campaign rally, he said the Russians "haven't done much," without mentioning the Russian missiles and jet-powered drones that have been terrorizing Ukrainian cities and destroying homes and energy infrastructure for weeks now.

According to media reports, Washington is already illegally withholding US defense missiles for Ukraine that NATO states have paid for. As a result, the Ukrainian army has little to counter, especially rockets and cruise missiles. Trump, who also suspended financial aid to Ukraine after taking office, claimed: "We gave a lot to Ukraine. They gave us nothing. Remember that."

Trump, who recently called for Zelensky's departure, also claimed that Zelensky "does not want to end this war and probably never wanted to." What Trump's “deal” will look like in the end is only clear in outline. In the event of successful mediation of a ceasefire, Russia should be prepared to sell the billion-dollar assets of the largest private Russian oil company, the Lukoil Group, which is subject to Western sanctions, to US investors.

The one remaining of the three Nord Stream pipes should in future deliver Russian natural gas to Europe under US leadership. In addition, according to reports, Putin's negotiator Kyrill Dmitriev has opened up plans for a gigantic Russian-American "economic restart" to Witkoff and Kushner: These include energy and raw materials deals, a possible return of ExxonMobil to the Sakhalin gas project and cooperation in space travel - such as a joint mission to Mars.