El Niño in climate change: When the Christ child brings more drought, floods and hunger

About the Pacific and the weather phenomenon “El Niño”. The sea off the South American coast is very rich in fish. Actually. Every four to seven years, however, the fishing nets suddenly remain empty during the Christmas season. And strange things happened as a result, in the Pacific region and around the world: floods, landslides, droughts, crop failures. It has been proven that Peruvian farmers have been calling this misery “El Niño de Navidad” since the 17th century – like the newborn Christ child. Because they also hoped that prayer would help with the El Niño weather phenomenon. May it just not be so violent this time.

The reason for the sudden lack of fish is the trade winds. They typically push warm ocean water from South America's coasts toward Indonesia and Australia, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water up from the depths of the Pacific - hence the abundance of fish. In El Niño years, however, the trade winds weaken and the ocean off South America warms up so much that the plankton - the fish food - dies. And because the trade winds are an important component of the global weather system, their anomalies cause serious disruptions even far away from the Pacific: droughts in East Africa, flooded deserts on the Arabian Peninsula, drought stress in the Amazon rainforest, floods in India. El Niño is a natural weather phenomenon. But the question is: is climate change making the “Christ Child” more violent?

To answer this, a US team examined the corals around the Galapagos Islands in the eastern Pacific - living and fossilized. The water in the archipelago at the equator heats up particularly strongly in El Niño years; the limestone skeletons of the dead corals store chemical traces of the water temperature. Using living corals, the University of Michigan team reconstructed the evolution of water temperatures and El Niño events over the past approximately 1,000 years. They found that El Niño has become 36.5 percent more severe than in pre-industrial times.

Important findings for disaster protection. And they are particularly needed right now. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned in August that there was an “extraordinarily high probability of almost 100 percent” that the Pacific would warm up again in winter this year. The strongest El Niño ever observed is expected by February 2027, said WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo. The violence has the potential to deal a massive blow to societies and economies around the world. Saulo calls for “extraordinary preparedness and response measures.” The fact that these are necessary is now scientifically supported.