Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: Five lessons from the elections

At first glance, Elif Eralp and Manuela Schwesig are very different: one is a centrist social democrat with a heart for the fuel discount, the other is a socialist with a heart for expropriation, one a province, the other a big city. One narrowly lost her election, the other won.

At second glance, both have a lot in common. They show how you can win against the AfD. Even if Schwesig's SPD is now behind the AfD: its catch-up was impressive and it can continue to govern. She got almost three times as many percentage points as her federal party in surveys.

The Left in Berlin and the SPD in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania have focused on the issue of affordability - and prevented the miserable issue of migration from dominating the election campaigns.

Manuela Schwesig has always rejected plans to cut pensions; as Prime Minister of a red-red coalition, she stands for an SPD that cares about families and social cohesion. Elif Eralp and the Berlin Left have made high rents the focus of their campaign. The dominant theme of the election in Berlin was a social issue. And when it comes to social issues, the AfD has little to offer.

Both election results show: There are alternatives to the AfD. Parties that focus on cohesion and affordability can defeat the right-wing extremists. Two women against brown – if that’s not a good sign.

The AfD gives its voters a feeling: Everything is possible, and your vote matters. In Berlin, the Left has now managed to capture this feeling from the left. According to voter migration, it was elected by more former non-voters than any other party.

The left has dared to have a lot of feeling for this. “One fights for true love,” says one of the party’s election spots about Berlin. Emotionalization can also be done in a positive way, without relying on division and dreaming of a right-wing revolution.

The left has shown what it stands for, not just what it is against. It was accused that its plan to expropriate large housing companies was too radical and unrealistic. This didn't deter her voters, but rather motivated them to react defiantly: Let's see that!

The good election results for the Schwerin SPD and the Berlin Left were only possible because Manuela Schwesig and Elif Eralp were convincing personalities. Schwesig, who has been in office for nine years, completed an election campaign that was completely tailored to her personality and traveled through all 36 constituencies as a carer. Anyone who wanted to talk to her had plenty of opportunity.

With Elif Eralp, the Left has dared to rely entirely on one person, following the example of Zohran Mamdani in New York: a post-migrant candidate for a post-migrant city. The social media campaign focused on her biography, and Eralp's first name also dominated the analog posters. Such a personality cult used to be frowned upon in left-wing parties. Today we know that socialism and celebrity are not opposites.

Eralp's personal credibility was also the reason why the Left did so well despite the scandal surrounding left-wing anti-Semitism. Eralp was credible; as a candidate, she outshone her party's weaknesses.

Conversely, how important credible people are is shown by the performance of the CDU and SPD. Shortly before the election, the Union hectically replaced its candidate and the SPD set up a re-import from Lower Saxony.

Only the right-wing extremists apparently don't need convincing personnel: this time the AfD won a state election without a sunny boy. This makes the results in the Northeast particularly worrying.

The Chancellor is unpopular like no one before him. Not only was he no help in the election campaign, he actually did harm, his fish sandwich appearance was rather embarrassing.

But Merz is now also a welcome lightning rod for the Union. The state parties can hide the fact that they themselves have a problem. The CDU is currently not needed in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania - and actually not in Berlin either.

The party ran an election campaign across the country that left people feeling helpless. She worked on red-red and couldn't come up with any ideas about what she wanted to do better. A subsidy for a driving license and a building allowance? Let's be honest.

In Berlin, the Union at least summarized its programmatic emptiness in a self-ironic way: “You probably have to vote for the CDU again” was written on its posters. But anyone who promotes themselves as the lesser evil cannot win elections. It's not enough to caricature the left as extremists, but not to have an answer to the question of how one can still afford an apartment in Berlin.

After the end of the Merkel era, the CDU lived out its neoliberal and anti-migration side when it made Merz chairman and candidate for chancellor. Now it is time to return to the social-liberal tradition, because “pure CDU” simply tastes too bitter for good election results.

It's just stupid that the Chancellor of all people didn't understand that, as his appearance on election evening showed. Merz wants to stick to the social cuts and apparently really believes that you just have to increase the dose until the medicine works.

In fact, the CDU is demonstrating in other countries that it has a certain breadth. In North Rhine-Westphalia, for example, a law-and-order man is the interior minister, and at the same time the former, long-standing chairman of the workers' wing, CDA, and social and labor minister. There will be elections in North Rhine-Westphalia in six months. Hendrik Wüst, who leads a black-green coalition, has a good chance of being re-elected. Another CDU is possible.

In both federal states there is now an opportunity for left-of-center governments. In Schwerin, Manuela Schwesig cannot continue her government with a very conformist left. But a three-way alliance with the Greens would be possible.

In Berlin, red-red-green has a clear majority, but the negotiations are likely to be difficult: a little expropriation is simply not possible. The Berlin SPD would have to implement what the party wants to ban at the federal level and what its top candidate has ruled out in the election campaign. And there are also some in the Left Party who, looking at the empty coffers, would rather remain in oppositional purity than get their hands dirty with compromises.

If red-red-green fails, it would not only be fatal for the left-wing majority of Berliners, who would have to continue to live with a CDU mayor. It would also be a tragic signal for the next federal election: If there is no democratic alternative, it will make the fight against the AfD more difficult.