AfD Saxony-Anhalt according to election results: Close to total victory

And then the right-wing extremist Björn Höcke stands on the stage in the “Altes Theater” in Magdeburg and tries to sing: “Such a day, as beautiful as today,” he calls into the Mirko. He doesn't hit the right notes, but he hits the mood in the hall. The AfD election party is in a frenzy of joy, intoxicated by the first forecast: the AfD bar shows 44.3 percent, an increase of over 23.5 percentage points.

“We still have an absolute majority today,” says Höcke, “the sovereign of Saxony-Anhalt has shrunk the cartel parties into a political flea circus.” The “wall of shame” has now been torn down. Höcke, who openly represents ethnicist positions and was convicted of SA slogans, speaks of a “breaking point”. Eight German flags are flying next to him, and behind him the video screen reads: “It starts here.”

According to the first projections on Sunday evening, the AfD is only one seat short of an absolute majority. Since 1945, no extreme right-wing party in Germany has been so close to power. According to post-election surveys by the Elections Research Group, the AfD primarily mobilized non-voters: 42 percent of its voters stayed at home in the last state election, and 29 percent already voted for the AfD back then.

Even if the AfD narrowly misses an absolute majority, Saxony-Anhalt is on the verge of ungovernability. If the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance, which is close to the 5 percent threshold, enters the state parliament, it would be impossible to form a government against the AfD and BSW. The final result was not available at the time of going to press.

Shortly after the first projections, Ulrich Siegmund speculated on the microphone about possible defectors from other parties who could help elect him as Prime Minister. An AfD prime minister would also be possible if the national populist BSW abstained if both pro-Kremlin parties moved in. Siegmund emphasized that he wanted to rule alone and at the same time claimed that his hand was outstretched. At the same time, he was uncompromising: “We remain true to our line” – that is, fundamental opposition or sole government.

The extreme right-wing AfD had almost ideal conditions in this state election campaign. Siegmund, charismatic and always smiling, masked the right-wing extremist environment and the party's ultra-radical program with his manner. Scandals bounced off him. He marketed an election program that wants to transform Saxony-Anhalt into an illiberal enclave.

A real cult arose around Siegmund. Fans brought merchandise to AfD events and stood in line for selfies or autographs on Siegmund shirts. His speeches were populist and empty, but they inspired hope. His campaign motto “Everything is possible” promised a return to the “old, safe Germany” – a time that either means the GDR, which Siegmund did not live through, or the 1990s and 2000s with higher crime, unemployment and a weaker economy.

For his followers, facts mattered less than Siegmund's approachability and optimism. He spoke to every potential voter, shook hands, patted shoulders, listened - always in a good mood, if slightly exaggerated. His political style: positive emotions and a sense of unity - which is of course also directed against others, downplaying and ideologically inciting minorities.

Like Höcke 2024, Siegmund also relied on East German symbols. He drove Simson mopeds to awaken GDR nostalgia. Even the half-joking singing of the GDR anthem didn't bother his fans.

Crises such as high energy prices, the economic downturn and dissatisfaction with the federal government are driving many AfD voters to demand a break with the existing situation - something has to change. In addition, the AfD is well advanced in its normalization through anchoring in rural areas and establishment in local politics, but also the adoption of issues such as migration by centrist parties while ignoring many facts about migration. Both ensure destigmatization of right-wing extremists.

The question now is: What will the exact majority be after the counting has been completed and will Siegmund stand for election? A scenario would also be conceivable in which Siegmund gets the few missing votes from the CDU in the secret election. Is the extreme right-wing party actually grasping for power? Or does the party continue to rely on fundamental opposition?

And how would the AfD govern in an emergency? Is it aiming for maximum disruption, as laid out in its ultra-radical election program, and turning things around as much as possible and causing a ruckus in order to turn Saxony-Anhalt into an illiberal enclave? Or is it pursuing a strategy of gradual normalization in order to appear more harmless and achieve selective successes?

Even the AfD leadership did not expect such a good result. As a precautionary measure, Siegmund announced to the ultra-radical party youth a week ago that he would put the “blood sausage coalition” from the Left to the CDU under pressure until it collapsed - and then triumph in new elections.

If the CDU had to work together with the Left, we would be a little closer to the goal of destroying the Union: “Sooner or later that would tear this party apart,” Siegmund was happy, and “then it will work in Thuringia, Saxony, Brandenburg, Rhineland-Palatinate and everywhere in Germany,” he said. The AfD sticks to its uncompromising fundamental opposition: radical maximum demands instead of moderation.

The extreme right-wing party in Saxony-Anhalt, with its blocking minority, can also block all decisions that require a two-thirds majority. With its critical size, it can prevent constitutional changes. At least a parliamentary reform from the spring protects the state constitutional court from being blocked by the AfD. A replacement election mechanism was installed there and cross-employment of family members was excluded - as became known in the wake of the AfD nepotism affair. The right to propose the President of the State Parliament no longer lies solely with the strongest faction. The parliamentary reservation applies to the termination of state contracts.