Every kind of climate shock is putting girls at risk of child marriage, violence and teen pregnancy, major global study finds

Climate disasters are driving greater risks of child marriage, teenage pregnancy, and violence for girls, according to new global research from Plan International.

The study combines a large-scale analysis of health and climate data spanning more than 50 countries over three decades with a survey of 5,000 girls, in-depth interviews and focus group discussions with 139 girls, across Bangladesh, Kenya, Peru, Senegal, and Zimbabwe.

The study found that climate disasters such as floods, droughts, cyclones, and extreme heat are destroying the health and education services girls depend on at the precise moment they need them most, with the consequences falling hardest on girls who already have the least.

Key findings of the report include:

One in 10 girls said they had personally experienced an unintended pregnancy following a climate-related event, while 33% reported an increase in unintended pregnancies in their community.
One in 10 girls said they had personally married before the age of 18, and 36% reported seeing more girls married or in a union before they turned 18 in their community following climate-related disasters.
More than a quarter (28%) of girls said they had observed an increase in violence against women and girls following climate-related events.
Nine in 10 girls said climate-related events were placing serious pressure on their family’s survival, health, and stability.
More than three-quarters (76%) of girls said more girls and young women in their community were struggling to access at least one health service, rising to 84% among those affected by drought.
Girls from minority communities were twice as likely to struggle to access services, nearly three times as likely to report an unintended pregnancy, and more than twice as likely to face pressure to marry young.

Behind many of these consequences lies a simple but devastating reality: climate shocks are pulling girls out of school. When education is disrupted, girls lose the single most protective factor in their lives, making them significantly more vulnerable to exploitation, violence, early marriage, and lost access to health services.

“For girls, the climate crisis is not a distant threat. It is already disrupting their education and increasing the risks they face when they cannot access health services. Only half of national climate plans mention girls’ or women’s health, and despite the escalating impact of climate shocks on the health systems and services girls rely on, just 0.5% of multilateral climate finance supports health”, said Reena Ghelani, Plan International CEO.

Girls reported increased risks of sexual exploitation in the aftermath of climate shocks, including being pressured into exchanging sex for money or basic necessities as protection systems and support networks break down. Girls also reported heightened danger in emergency shelters, where cramped conditions and darkness left them exposed to harassment and sexual violence.

“When floods leave people completely destitute, families think about financial hardship and marry off girls at a very young age,” said Shahina, 19, from Bangladesh. Participants in the study described girls becoming pregnant from as young as 12 and 13 in Peru, with girls in Zimbabwe noting pregnancy among girls still in primary and early secondary school.

Almost half of girls (49%) noticed more pregnancy health or childbirth related complications, including miscarriages, in their community following a climate shock. Nearly one in four said access to healthcare during pregnancy and delivery care became harder to reach.

The research also identifies a form of climate harm that is almost entirely absent from disaster planning. Slow-onset drought destroys the household economies that keep girls out of marriage. Across 52 countries and three decades, prolonged drought emerged as the hazard most consistently associated with rising rates of child marriage and early unions, as families lose harvests, livestock, and income over months and years until marrying a daughter becomes a survival strategy.

“My father has no livestock to sell and take me to college, that’s how I accepted to be married off,” said Galgalo, a 22-year-old participant from Kenya.

Because slow-onset drought rarely triggers an emergency response, this damage accumulates unseen. Girls whose schooling was disrupted were twice as likely to marry young or face an unintended pregnancy. A secondary analysis spanning over 50 countries across three decades confirmed that uninterrupted education is the single most consistent protective factor against early marriage and violence.

The findings highlight how climate-related disasters are exacerbating existing inequalities and vulnerabilities for girls, increasing risks to their health, safety, and wellbeing. This year, the El Niño weather pattern is intensifying weather extremes across the globe and predictions expect it to be the most powerful in decades.

In Peru, girls described how recurring El Niño floods disrupted access to health services, cut off transport routes, and increased pressure on already struggling families. With El Niño conditions projected to intensify further in the coming months, the window to act before these impacts deepen is narrowing.

With the world’s attention soon to turn to COP31, where countries have an opportunity to negotiate international action on climate change Plan International is calling on governments and donors to act:

Keep schools open and free during climate shocks – education is the single most consistent protective factor across three decades of data, and girls whose schooling is disrupted are twice as likely to marry young or face an unintended pregnancy.
Allocate a defined share of climate adaptation finance to adolescent girls’ health, including sexual and reproductive health services, contraception, and maternity care.
Include menstrual products, contraception, and protection services in every emergency response package, not as a later stage intervention
Reach the most marginalised girls. Girls from minority communities, those with disabilities, and those already displaced face the greatest barriers and receive the least support.

“We know what puts girls at risk, and we know what helps protect them. What is missing is not the evidence, but the urgency to act on it. Girls cannot continue to be treated as an afterthought in climate action. They must have a meaningful say in the decisions that shape their lives, and their rights and needs must be built into climate policy and financing from the outset”, said Reena Ghelani.

Rita Bhowmick