In Ethiopia there is a new internal conflict between the central government and various militias from the country's many ethnic groups. The fighting is part of a series of armed conflicts for dominance in the region.

It's been piling up for a weekMessagesthat there is increasing fighting between the Ethiopian state and numerous militias of the country's ethnic minorities. Even if there is no talk of a renewed outbreak of civil war, it seems as if reaching the next level of escalation is only a matter of time.

A few days ago, several militias announced theEducationa broad alliance of armed groups from the country's various ethnic minorities to form the Ethiopian People's Forces Coalition for Survival (EPFCS). This coalition includes the country's largest militias, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), the Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM) and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), as well as groups from many of Ethiopia's other ethnic minorities.

They all share the goal of overthrowing the incumbent Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. This goal creates unity despite sometimes long-standing hostilities. For example, there is disagreement between the TPLF and the AFNM over which minority should own certain regions in the country.

The TPLFoccupiedin recent days various strategic positions in the region, such as airports. It also appears to have carried out an attack in the neighboring Afar region with the aim of seizing one of the most important transport routes between the Ethiopian capital and neighboring Djibouti. But the other militias of the new alliance have also increased their attacks on the Ethiopian army.

The TPLF is now talking about having a “Defensive war" against the government in Addis Ababa. It was only four years ago that an unstable peace arose between the TPLF and the state after two years of brutal civil war between the two sides in the Tigray region. However, the conflict began several decades ago.

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Ethiopia's path to civil war

In the seventiesbeganthe TPLF launched an armed struggle against the then military government. After it was overthrown after years of war, the TPLF became the leading party in the new governing coalition. The TPLF dominated state politics for around three decades, even though the Tigray people only make up around six percent of the country's population.

Abiy Ahmed then became prime minister in 2018, replacing the TPLF-led ruling coalition with his own Prosperity Party. Two years later, civil war broke out in the Tigray region. This developed into a humanitarian crisis with hundreds of thousands of deaths, millions of displaced people and the almost complete isolation of the Tigray region.

The war was ended by the Pretoria Treaty in 2022, but the conflict remained. Since2024The situation continues to escalate on both sides. At the beginning of 2025, the TPLF overthrew the interim government in Tigray established by the Pretoria Agreement. Since November 2025 there have been military conflicts again, which are getting bigger every time.

Compared to the last war, the alliance constellation in particular has changed. While the AFNM fought on the side of the government in 2020, it is now against it, and neighboring Eritrea no longer supports the government in Addis Ababa. On the contrary: Ethiopia's governmentthrowsEritrea, the Sudanese army and Egypt to support the militias. They reject the allegations. This is where Ethiopia's role in the region and in supra-regional alliances comes into play.

The Red Sea as a geopolitical hotspot

West Asia and the Horn of Africa – Struggle for dominance

The regions around the Horn of Africa and Western Asia have been characterized by armed conflicts for years. Since the outbreak of the civil war in Sudan, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria and the further escalation between Iran and Israel as a result of the Gaza war, new alliance axes and interest blocs seem to be forming into which Ethiopia's internal conflicts and its expansion projects can be classified.

On the one handPageis the axis between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) with their apparent plans to fundamentally rearrange the division of regions between the blocs in order to assert themselves as the dominant force. They also seem to openly challenge existing state borders and promote fragmentation.

The UAEsupportFor example, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan, which is waging a brutal civil war against the military government there. Israelrecognizedjust a few months ago the separatist republic of Somaliland. Somalia's state integrity is actually being challenged here.

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Ethiopia with ambitions for power

It is precisely these projects that play into the hands of the Ethiopian government under Abiy Ahmed. The Prime Ministermighthas made no secret of the fact that he wants to lead Ethiopia to the tip of the Horn of Africa. But in his opinion, in order to become a regional power, Ethiopia needs direct access to the sea, ideally to the Red Sea and the strategically important Bab al-Mandab sea route.

There are two options available: a deal with the separatists in Somaliland or with Eritrea. Eritrea has itnointerest, and while Somaliland is quite willing to lease land to Ethiopia for a port, Somalia, to which Somaliland officially belongs, objects.

Somaliland accordingly wants Ethiopia's recognition as an independent state in return for access to the Red Sea. So if Abiy wants to carry out his plans, he will do so with military means, either against Eritrea or Somalia. And Abiy threatens to use this regularly.

Region between hardened fronts

The geostrategic features of the Israel-UAE axis in the region benefit Ethiopia, but not only in these projects. Since Ethiopia built a dam on the Blue Nile, significantly less water has arrived in Sudan and Egypt than before. This gave rise to another oneconflictbetween Ethiopia and its neighboring states, both of which are distracted from Ethiopia by the civil war in Sudan. In addition to the UAE, Addis Ababa also allegedly supports the RSF.

But this axis also has another one, rightnew interestsblockopposite. Turkey and Saudi Arabia, along with Pakistan, are on the same block with Egypt and Somalia in the Mecca Defense Pact on the other side.

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Despite the war in West Asia and the setbacks suffered by Iran, the “Axis of Resistance” remains a force in regional conflicts. For example, a strong Ethiopia would have a good one with an independent Somalilandalliesof Israel against the Houthis in Yemen, especially since the UAE-backed separatists in southern Yemen were repelled.

The role of Ethiopia's civil war in the regional power struggle

While the escalations at home are standing in the way of the government's plans for advancement, the conflict certainly offers Ethiopia's opponents some opportunities to outdo a rival or an ally of the enemy bloc.

At the same time, the situation threatens to escalate further: more direct intervention - for example by Eritrea - would raise the conflict to a regional level and thus bring the Horn of Africa even closer to a supra-regional conflagration. The three axes are already facing each other today, and not just in the Horn of Africa. From Sudan via Yemen to southern Syria, Lebanon and theeastern MediterraneanThere are various fronts, all of which have further potential for escalation.

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