Between 2020 and 2025, over two million Mexicans were forced to leave their homeland and relocate within Mexico due to cartel crime and environmental disasters. In addition, over a million people left the country completely.

Last week, the Mexican Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) published surveys on displacement within the country for the first time. This large-scale study surveyed several million Mexican households.

The result of the survey: In the period from October 2020 to October 2025over two million peopleforced to leave their homeland and seek refuge elsewhere within Mexico. Those who have fled abroad are not taken into account. The UN refugee agency UNHCR describes these as refugees, while people who have had to leave their place of residence but relocate within the country are categorized as internally displaced persons.

Criminal cartels are the most common cause of displacement

The overwhelming majority of them were forced to leave due to organized crime or rampant cartel violence. Around 1.6 million displaced people cited this as the reason.

The highest proportion of people leaving the country due to crime is recorded in the states of Michoacán and Chiapas. In the latter state, more than a quarter of the residents in the municipality of Chicomuselo were forced to leave their hometown. Zacatecas, Morelos, Michoacán, Querétaro and Colima are other states suffering from huge migration rates due to cartel violence.

117 million people are on the run worldwide

Another almost half a million respondents said that environmental disasters such as hurricanes or floods had forced them to flee. In the case of climate-related causes of flight, the UNHCR assumes that the displaced people can only settle temporarily in another place and return to their homeland more quickly.

President Sheinbaum has to prove herself to many opponents

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has not yet fully commented on the results. She requested detailed information regarding the survey and INEGI's procedures in order to get a better picture. The left-liberal president has been confronted with numerous domestic political challenges since taking office. Above all, the fight against the cartels and right-wing opposition groups are permanent areas of conflict for the 64-year-old.

Protests almost a year ago showed how these two topics overlap: After the murder of Carlos Manzo, the right-wing mayor of Uruapan, thousands took to the streets. The protesters wanted to stage themselves as part of the global Gen Z protests and highlight the grievances in the fight against cartels. However, in many cases the protests spread regressive demands and allegations arose that politically relevant actors were behind the organization.

Escalation in Mexico: “Gen Z protest” or right-wing production?

Increased flight and conflict with the USA

In addition, there is an ongoing conflict with the neighboring country USA and its President Donald Trump. He is not only critical of Sheinbaum because of the different political orientations, but above all because of Trump's most important campaign issue: the supposedly illegal immigrants who cross the Mexican border into the United States.

Mexicans are not only affected by displacement within their own country. Many find themselves in such a hopeless situation that they hope for better chances of a dignified life in the neighboring country. INEGI assumes that almost 1.1 million people emigrated from Mexico to the USA between 2018 and 2023. This generally includes any form of migration. However, a further study assumes that around 40 percent of those came to the USA without an entry document and that this can therefore be assumed to be a cause of flight.

Both internal and international migration pose major demographic challenges for Mexico, especially as the annual population growth rate has fallen to 0.7 percent. The current birth rate is 1.2 children per woman, making it one of the lowest in the world.

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