Runoff election in Brazil | Lula: The dream of change

The second round follows on Sunday: President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva, who is running for re-election, leaves the polling station after casting his vote during the parliamentary elections in São Bernardo do Campo, Brazil. Photo: dpa/Andre Penner Murilo Rua spoke to his grandmother for a long time. He told her what effects a change of government would have. Now, the 24-year-old tells “nd,” his grandmother will go to the polls and vote for incumbent Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva.

It's a story we hear more often in Brazil these days. After the desolate first round of voting for the left, in which the ultra-right candidate Flávio Bolsonaro was ahead of Lula, the left has woken up from its state of shock. Demonstrations take place somewhere in the country almost every day. These are the largest left-wing protests in years. Many people seem to have realized what is at stake in Latin America's largest country. Murila Rua puts it this way: "If Bolsonaro is elected, democracy in Brazil will die." That's not entirely far-fetched.

Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has already announced several times that he wants to change the constitution and extend his possible term in office. This could actually be possible, because in the parliamentary elections on October 4th, many ultra-right candidates entered parliament, where they could form a majority in the future. In the event of Bolsonaro's election victory, the Supreme Court is likely to face a fundamental restructuring and thus lose the democratic control function that it had during the Bolsonaro clan's first term in office.

The geopolitical situation is also playing into the Bolsonarists' hands: right-wing extremist forces have taken over the government in most Latin American countries. In addition, Donald Trump, a close ally of the Bolsonaro family, sits in the White House. Trump and his Secretary of State Marco Rubio have repeatedly interfered - directly and indirectly - in the Brazilian election campaign.

And so the left is doing everything it can to somehow avert the great catastrophe, i.e. the election of Bolsonaro. It is hopeful that many protests are being led by young people. The demonstrations no longer have to be organized by Lula's workers' party PT; they have taken on a dynamic of their own, even outside the large metropolitan areas. Many celebrities from music, film and art have joined Lula's campaign. Those who don't speak out are harshly criticized, with the accusation that anyone who doesn't speak out now is abetting fascism.

There were conflicts within the Labor Party over the strategic direction of the election campaign. Many criticized Lula's strategy of emphasizing the successes of previous years in the first round of elections. In fact, the former trade unionist often emphasized the achievements of his first terms in office, when his government was able to finance extensive social programs thanks to bubbling raw material revenues and millions of people were freed from extreme poverty. The campaign now focuses primarily on attacking Bolsonaro and making up space on social media. There, the Bolsonarists have so far been far superior to the left-wing camp. Possibly also because the US company Meta, which owns Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, preferred Bolsonaro's campaign. At least that's what Lula's campaign claims. Meta denies political influence and speaks of technical problems.

In fact, Lula's campaign has managed to reclaim space online in recent weeks. A WhatsApp group supporting Lula has grown to seven million members within just a few days. Lula's "army" is flooding social networks with video snippets, memes and texts that warn against Bolsonaro's term in office.

President Lula is also going on the offensive. In addition to the usual pre-election tricks - an increase in Bolsa Família social assistance, tax relief on fuel, a legislative initiative for free local transport on weekends - he declared that he would disclose all of his and his family's accounts if his opponent did the same. Bolsonaro has been embroiled in a number of scandals. It's about bribes, straw men, sex parties and connections to criminal groups. Some of the cases are so complex that even political experts do not fully understand them.

For some Brazilians, every scandal, no matter how blatant, seems to be ignored. Bolsonaro's radical electorate has long been immune to information that tarnishes the family's image. They see every new publication as part of a large plot aimed at depriving Bolsonaro of the presidency.

The left is speculating on reaching those Brazilians who reject Lula but could strategically give him their vote to prevent Bolsonaro. That's why it's now a matter of reaching out to people who didn't vote in the first round. That was around 30 million Brazilians, despite compulsory voting. No candidate who was defeated in the first round of voting has managed to turn the result around. But fear of Bolsonaro's presidency is mobilizing. Lula has caught up in the polls, and the left is already dreaming of “virada,” or change. The fact is: It will be a very close runoff election on Sunday that will shape Brazil's future.

The first TV debate between Bolsonaro and Lula, broadcast on Band TV, is emblematic of the tense, polarized situation in the country. The two presidential candidates fought violently against each other, and in the meantime there was turmoil in the studio when advisors from both camps clashed. An exchange did not take place, also because the Bolsonaro camp has perfected the ability to suppress any debate through provocations and attacks. In Brazil, two groups are irreconcilably opposed to each other. And the runoff election on Sunday, regardless of the outcome, is likely to ensure that the divisions become even deeper.

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