CSU party conference | The big Ilse Aigner show

Ilse Aigner, President of the Bavarian State Parliament, is pleased to be welcomed by Friedrich Merz at the CSU party conference. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa The Chancellor ultimately provides the most emotional and possibly decisive moment of this CSU party conference: at the very beginning of his speech, directly after CSU leader Markus Söder, Friedrich Merz greets Bavaria's state parliament president Ilse Aigner, almost in the same breath, before the head of the European People's Party, Manfred Weber. The delegates then burst into applause and cheers and rose from their seats. Aigner, who is sitting in the front row, also stands up and waves with both hands into the party conference hall in Munich, she is beaming.

It's not a random greeting. Aigner is her CSU party's preferred candidate for the office of Federal President. Söder would like her, her party is almost entirely behind her, Aigner also receives support from the SPD and the Greens. It is still unclear who the CDU and Merz want. That's why it's so noticeable that Merz mentions Aigner by name and so prominently in second place, unlike at the CSU party conferences in 2024 and 2025.

The CSU delegates' expectations of Merz are therefore high. At the party conference, all eyes and cameras are focused on how the Chancellor deals with Aigner, whether he says anything about the P question, and what. And of course it is noted exactly how Merz greets Aigner as he enters the hall and on the way to the stage - with kisses on the cheek right and left.

The P question of who will succeed Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier next year is the overarching question of this CSU party conference. That's why the delegates' meeting ultimately becomes a kind of Ilse Aigner show. Even if the 61-year-old doesn't speak up once, even if she doesn't say anything publicly - except that she is happy about the great support and that the decision rests with the party leaders.

Söder's 73-minute speech, in which he otherwise primarily calls for a joint fight against extremists from the left and right, was already heading towards this climax: the renewed campaign for Aigner to be the next Federal President. With a Freudian slip of the tongue: “The decision will be made somewhere else, but I would wholeheartedly appreciate it if Ilse Aigner were to become the next Federal President. That would be a great thing,” he said. “Wish for me and grant her,” he actually wanted to say. Söder later corrected the sentence on Instagram.

But what's behind Söder's advertising? Is he really committed to supporting his party friend with all his heart? And what role does the K question always play in the P question? Specifically: If a CSU politician becomes Federal President, wouldn't Söder deny himself the last remaining chance of ultimately moving into the Chancellery at some point? Or, exactly the other way around and with a view to Bavaria: Shouldn't Söder be happy to have Aigner as a competitor at home?

As a reminder: When Söder first brought Aigner into conversation at the end of April, after the local elections, he was himself in a phase of weakness internally. The CSU suffered countless lost runoff elections, and Söder himself stumbled at a press conference and thus drew the ire of many campaigners. Questions about a possible Söder twilight arose, as did some after his poor re-election result at the 2025 party conference. That's why Söder's public promotion of Aigner was seen as an attempt to stabilize his own position.

Söder himself was also unusually self-critical at the party conference. There was a lot of joy in the local elections, but rightly there was also a lot of frustration. Nobody is infallible - not even him. The criticism at the time was correct. And Söder, whom some in his party like to accuse of a lack of team play, says almost imploringly: “We are only strong together.”

So now together for Aigner? In fact, Söder does not have to fear the 61-year-old as an acute competitor in Bavaria at least at the moment. And his dream of becoming Chancellor? The chances of this happening within the CSU have long been viewed as marginal anyway. To do this, the CDU would have to arrive in dire need and plead with Söder and almost carry him to Berlin, it is said. In the meantime, however, it is assumed that Merz will hold his ground - and that the CDU will not call Söder today or tomorrow. And if so, then it wouldn't matter who would be head of state, they say.

Merz is also warmly welcomed at the CSU party conference - contrary to what some people predicted - and the speech is repeatedly interrupted by applause. Maybe also because of the Aigner moment at the beginning, with which he managed to win over the otherwise often critical CSU delegates?

But then, apart from Aigner's clever greeting at the beginning, we get to Merz's P question: exactly nothing. Not in his entire speech.

A CSU executive says that Merz couldn't do anything more because of his internal party constraints. That's why the trick with Aigner's greeting was so clever and why the Chancellor allowed the applause to continue.

Many in the CSU see Merz's internal weakness after the election defeats in the East as the main obstacle for Aigner. Many are wondering whether Merz will ultimately be strong enough to hand over the highest state office to the CSU. One thing is clear: a decision must be made in the next few weeks. And this party conference showed Merz very clearly what the CSU wants. dpa/nd

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