Boslonaro and Lula | Brazil follows the rightward trend

Flavio Bolsonaro wins the first round of the presidential elections in Brazil. Photo: dpa/Eraldo Peres South America's last left-wing bastion other than small Uruguay is about to fall: In the runoff election on October 25th, Brazil's President Luiz Inácio "Lula" needs a medium to major miracle to reverse the defeat in the first round on October 4th. The ultra-right Flávio Bolsonaro got a good 47 percent of the vote, Lula just under 45 percent. And Lula was the left-wing unity candidate, while on the right another seven percent went to other candidates who were more likely to end up with Bolsonaro than Lula in the runoff.

In three weeks, Lula will have to break the rule that previously applied in Brazil: whoever wins the first round also wins the runoff. In Colombia in 2022, the left-wing Gustavo Petro managed to win the runoff election against the forecasts. About the millions of voters mobilized through door-to-door campaigning by his running mate Francia Márquez. The 80-year-old Lula and his colleagues are now facing this challenge. It is immense, and Lula does not have a charismatic deputy.

The trend clearly speaks in favor of the ultra-right Flavio Bolsonaro. In this vote, Bolsonaro's right-wing party won large majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives as well as for governorships. There are also other family members: Michelle, Carlos and Jair Renan Bolsonaro.

The shift to the right in Brazil is clear. If Bolsonaro wins the runoff election, the right-wing dominance in South America will be strengthened. Brazil could follow the law of the strongest and join the “Shield of the Americas” launched by US President Donald Trump in March 2026 – the alliance that Washington has concluded with 14 Latin American and Caribbean countries.

Brazil has a choice in three weeks: multilateralism and defense of national sovereignty or submission to US domination.

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