Labour leads the polls as Reform support falls

Britain / 24 September 2026 Unison petition demands ‘proper investment in public services’ ahead of Budget 24 September 2026 Britain / 23 September 2026 Burnham launches war on disinformation 23 September 2026 Antisemitism / 23 September 2026 Two men arrested over suspected terror plot targeting Jewish community 23 September 2026 Energy Crisis / 23 September 2026 GMB urges Labour to bring down energy costs as Ineos mothballs three plants in Hull 23 September 2026 Britain / 23 September 2026 Scotland leads Europe in drugs deaths eight years running 23 September 2026 Britain / 23 September 2026 Chagos deal in doubt after Trump veto 23 September 2026 LABOUR received a pre-conference boost today as two mega-surveys showed the party likely to be the largest at the next general election.

The polls also indicate waning support for Reform, although the hard-right party may still outperform its Tory rivals.

However, neither of the surveys shows Labour winning an overall majority, or reaching even the anaemic level of support it enjoyed at the 2024 election.

The YouGov poll estimated Labour winning 241 Commons seats, 170 fewer than in 2024.

Tories would be runners-up on 130, narrowly ahead of Reform on 123, with the Liberal Democrats on 71, the Scottish nationalists advancing to 40, Plaid Cymru on 15 and the Greens nine.

A separate poll by Survation and 38 Degrees also put Labour ahead with 272 seats and 28 per cent of the vote, with Reform on 153 seats, becoming the official opposition, with 24 per cent.

The Tories would slump to just 85 seats and 20 per cent.

Under this scenario, Labour would likely have to come to some form of agreement with the Liberal Democrats in order to continue governing.  

The polls put Sir Ed Davey’s party on 69 seats, with the SNP on 40, Plaid eight and the Greens just three.

These estimates could easily be altered by tactical voting, particularly if anti-Reform voters coalesce around the candidate best placed to see off the hard right in a given constituency.

The polls reveal that Labour has succeeded in consolidating the left-of-centre vote around the party, in England at least, since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister.

In a reversal of the strategy followed by his predecessor Sir Keir Starmer and former chief of staff Morgan McSweeney, Mr Burnham is paying less attention to forlorn hopes of winning over Reform voters.

He recognises that his best chance of electoral success lies in a relatively united left taking advantage of a bitterly divided right.

The figures may further stoke speculation about an early general election, and highlight Mr Burnham’s dilemma — he would likely do well enough to stay in Downing Street, but droves of sitting Labour MPs would lose their seats, and he would have to negotiate his plans with Sir Ed.

The Prime Minister will set out details of those plans at Labour’s conference, opening in Liverpool at the weekend.  

In an interview with the New Statesman, he reaffirmed his view that the bond market has too much influence over British politics, without unveiling a clear plan to diminish it.