Republicans Gerrymandered These Florida Districts. Democrats Won Them Anyway.

Several congressional districts that Florida’s Republican-controlled legislature heavily redrew earlier this year to favor the GOP have just elected Democrats to those seats.

Rep. Kathy Castor, a Democrat who has held her seat since 2007, was just reelected by more than 5 points on Tuesday night, beating Republican nominee Mike Beltran. The district, which originally included Tampa, was redrawn to include swaths of rural Hillsborough County, an area that voted for Trump by more than 10 points in 2024.

Farther south in the state, Pia Dandiya, the Democratic candidate for the redrawn District 22, was also winning Tuesday as of 8:30 p.m. EST by more than 3 points. The former educator and Apple manager ran against Republican Casey Askar, a millionaire businessman.

Some districts that had been solidly Democratic were also redrawn. Former DNC chair Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz‘s district was redrawn and she decided to run in the majority-minority District 20. Democratic incumbent Rep. Jared Moskowitz also won in District 25, and Rep. Darren Soto was likely to win in District 9.

As I reported last month:

Republicans have controlled Florida in recent years, and of the 13.7 million total registered voters, they now have a 1.5 million registered voter advantage over Democrats. Add to this the fact that the redistricted map potentially gives the GOP up to 24 of the 28 total US House seats in the state—where before they held 20. But the new advantage comes with a catch. “When you create more districts that are favorable to Republicans, the margin is not as favorable anymore,” said Aubrey Jewett, a political science professor at the University of Central Florida. That means that when lines are redrawn to create more GOP seats, the actual pool of eligible Republican voters has become more diluted. “When they drew those lines, there was the possibility that it could backfire,” he said.

The timing of the redistricting was also critical, since it took place when Trump’s unpopularity began to rise. And then there is the simple political reality that a president’s party typically loses more congressional seats during the midterms. “An unpopular president usually loses more,” Jewett told me. “He bashed the Biden administration about inflation, but since he’s been in office it hasn’t gone down, it’s gone up. A lot of voters are really frustrated with that.”

All these dynamics come together to sometimes loosen party loyalty when it’s time to vote. “When people perceive the economy as being a problem, they tend to be more open to considering alternatives at the ballot box,” said Kevin Wagner, a political science professor at Florida Atlantic University. “There is a bit of an opening for the Democratic party.” He cautioned against overly optimistic forecasts for a blue wave, however. “If we’re being fair here,” Wagner added, “Democrats have a lot of ground to make up.” Democrats have fewer registered voters than Republicans in Florida, for instance, and the state lacks a prominent Democrat in any of its executive leadership positions. Moreover, the Florida Republican party’s coffers are overflowing, with multi-million dollar campaign funding efforts in the state.

In statewide elections, however, the GOP remain in power. Republican Byron Donalds will become Florida’s first Black governor, and Sen. Ashley Moody, who ran in a tight race against Democrat Angie Nixon for senator, will return to Washington.