Josh Turek Flips Iowa Senate Seat

Paralympian Josh Turek has won his latest match—a victory against Iowa GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson to become the state’s junior senator–elect, NBC News and Decision Desk HQ projected Tuesday night:

Turek, a Iowa state legislator long seen as a prime candidate to help flip the Senate for Democrats, campaigned as a moderate with an emphasis on issues such as Republican cuts to Medicaid under the Trump administration.

It is an understatement to say that this race could have gone either way: Turek and Trump loyalist Hinson repeatedly swapped leads in the polls and ran neck-and-neck until Election Day, with the final New York Times/Siena poll prior to the election putting Turek at 48 percent and Hinson at 47 percent on Sunday.

Turek’s campaign often emphasized the impacts of President Donald Trump’s so-called One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which the Democrat said influenced his decision to enter the race. Disabled since birth and enduring multiple surgeries, Turek said he’d seen first-hand that the health care system was already broken enough. As I wrote when I profiled Turek earlier this year, during his primary run:

Now a second-term representative in Iowa’s state legislature, representing Pottawattamie County—which has voted red in every Presidential election since 1968—Turek is vying for the seat that Republican Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst will vacate at the end of her term. Ernst herself flipped what was then a blue seat from former Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin, who represented Iowa in the Senate from 1985 to 2015; she announced in September that she wouldn’t run for re-election after immense backlash to her comments on President Trump’s then-proposed Medicaid cuts at a May 2025 town hall: Ernst notoriously responded to an audience member’s remark that “people will die” with “We all are going to die.” Her popularity among moderates never recovered.

Turek was born with spina bifida, linked to his father’s exposure to Agent Orange during his service in Vietnam, a condition that compelled him to have 21 surgeries by the age of 12. His family grew up poor; the Tureks shared clothes from Goodwill, and Josh qualified for free lunch programs, attending college thanks to the financial support of his state’s vocational rehabilitation program.

Turek had been endorsed by Harkin, whose considerable sway in the state was an asset; Harkin was also one of the sponsors of the Americans with Disabilities Act and a longtime sponsor of disability legislation. Turek was also endorsed by national politicians with disabilities, including Senator Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) and former House Rep. Tony Coelho, the primary author of the Americans with Disabilities Act, as well as by former President Barack Obama, who shot hoops with the candidate:

Turek often highlighted his athleticism in campaign emails, talking about competing in wheelchair basketball or how he dragged himself up countless flights of stairs to talk to voters—a reminder that disabled politicians often have to present a tough exterior to seem worthy to hold office.

Trump, meanwhile, had firmly endorsed Hinson, who consistently voted for the preisdent’s legislative priorities, including OBBA and continuing the Iran war. On Sunday, Trump went to a rally in Dubuque, Iowa, urging Iowans to vote for Republicans, including Hinson.

“If we don’t win, you go into the back of the pack. If we do win, you stay first in the nation,” Trump said. “Now, that sounds like a little tricky wording. It’s not tricky at all. You’re going to be first in the nation, because we’re going to win.” Trump’s messaging may not have been effective.

Among Turek’s vocal supporters was Seth Watkins, co-chair of Farmers for Turek. Iowa farmers, Watkins believes, need Turek in the Senate. Iowa Farmers Union president Aaron Lehman also encouraged farmers to vote for the Democrat.

Another factor for Watkins: his disabled son, who depends on Medicaid-funded home and community-based services to live at home. Turek’s focus on reversing Medicaid cuts was pivotal for families like Watkins’ as funding for such services is already among Democrats’ priorities.

Not that Turek’s campaign was unfailingly inclusive: The day Turek won his primary against his progressive opponent, fellow state legislator Zach Wahls, Hinson ran an advertisement claiming that Turek supported “sex changes for children” without their parents’ consent.

Turek hadn’t—but he responded in part by attacking trans girls’ participation in sports, more recently adding that he wouldn’t support government coverage of gender-affirming care, which has drawn criticism from some Democrats within the state. Turek even announced that he’d voted for three Republicans, including a county supervisor and county treasurer, on his own Election Day ballot.

Turek’s win will make him the the first Democratic senator to represent Iowa since Harkin’s retirement in 2015.