‘We are vulnerable’: Kurds fear renewed attacks as US‑led coalition departs Iraq

Submitted by Wladimir van Wilgenburg on Thu, 10/01/2026 - 11:02 As Washington ends its decade‑long mission in Iraq, Kurds warn autonomous region is at risk amid US-Iran tensions

Kurdish Peshmerga fighters about 60km south of Erbil, capital of Iraq's autonomous Kurdish region, on 30 September 2026 (Safin Hamid/AFP) Off

On 28 September, residents of Erbil heard military aircraft overhead as the US‑led coalition against the Islamic State group (IS) was preparing for its full withdrawal.

That same night, three Iranian drones hit a camp belonging to an Iranian Kurdish opposition party in Koya. Two days later, Koya was hit again by a drone, the first such attack after the coalition’s departure.

On Wednesday, the US‑led coalition ended its more than decade‑long mission in Iraq, a mission that began in 2014 when IS seized large territories in Iraq and Syria and carried out mass atrocities.

Although the militant group was declared defeated in Iraq in 2017 and in Syria in 2019, coalition forces remained to help contain its remnants.

In 2024, Baghdad and Washington agreed to wind down the mission, prompting a gradual withdrawal from bases across Iraq and a final consolidation in the Kurdistan Region before the complete pullout, scheduled for 30 September.

The latest incidents in Koya underscore how exposed the Iraqi Kurdistan Region remains to drone and missile attacks amid ongoing tensions between Iran and the United States.

According to a 27 September statement from the Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs – the military forces of the autonomous Kurdish region – Iraqi Kurdistan has endured more than a thousand drone and ballistic missile attacks since Israel and the US launched the war on Iran on 28 February, causing casualties and significant material damage.

'The threat is real – we are vulnerable, we are being attacked'

– KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani

“The departure of the United States from the Kurdistan Region in such a complex regional situation, without providing any defence system, is a cause for concern,” the ministry said, urging Baghdad to “assume the duty of protecting the airspace of the Kurdistan Region when necessary”.

Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Prime Minister Masrour Barzani told the Financial Times last week that withdrawing without leaving behind an adequate defence system was an issue.

“The threat is real – we are vulnerable, we are being attacked,” Barzani said.

Before the withdrawal, the final contingent of roughly 1,500 coalition troops was stationed at Erbil Air Base, down from about 2,500 personnel across Iraq before the 2024 drawdown agreement.

Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell, announcing the end of the mission, said the US expects Iraqi security forces – including the Peshmerga – to take the lead in securing Iraq and combating what remains of IS.

“The Department of War will continue to provide targeted training and intelligence support to our Iraqi partners,” he said.

Growing public concern

Such assurances, however, do little to calm ordinary Iraqi Kurds.

“As a Kurd I am truly worried,” said Canel, 19, an undergraduate at the American University of Iraq, Sulaimani.

‘The presence of the coalition gave Kurds a feeling of safety and I fear that without it, IS or another extremist threat could return’

– Canel, 19, Kurdish student

“The Kurdistan Region does not have the level of military equipment, air power and intelligence that the coalition provides,” he told Middle East Eye.

“The presence of the coalition gave Kurds a feeling of safety, and I fear that without it, IS or another extremist threat could return and endanger the people of the Kurdistan Region again,” he added.

On 27 September, two Kurdish teens were killed during clashes between IS cells and Iraqi Counterterrorism forces (CTS) in the city of Pirde, Kirkuk governorate, sparking Kurdish protests.

Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) leader Barzani sought to reassure citizens on Wednesday, saying that the departure of the coalition forces will not “leave the Region vulnerable and threaten its very existence”.

“I wish to reassure the beloved people of Kurdistan that there is strong coordination with the Federal Government of Iraq to confront any threat or danger,” he said in a post on X.

Baghdad, for its part, maintains that Iraq can now stand on its own. Iraqi Air Force Commander Lieutenant-General Khalid al‑Tamimi said the Iraqi air force no longer needs US support and can conduct missions independently.

Prime Minister Ali al‑Zaidi similarly declared that Iraq will “assume full responsibility for its security and stability”. He declared that 1 October, the day following the coalition's departure, should be celebrated as Sovereignty Day.

‘More time is needed’

However, many Kurdish officials and experts disagree with this optimistic military assessment.

Lieutenant-General Bakhtiar Mohammed Sadiq, secretary general of the Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs, told MEE that while the 2024 US-Iraq Security Agreement governing the coalition’s withdrawal is, in itself, a standard and legitimate framework, the timing is not suitable amid the ongoing Iran-US war.

An anonymous coalition officer involved in building up the Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs told MEE that the withdrawal timeline had been postponed several times, but was ultimately fixed by the Biden administration for 30 September.

As the US pulls its forces out of Iraq, what happens to Iran-backed armed groups? Read More »

“The war in Iran and the course of the current administration have accelerated everything. Until a year ago, the idea was still to position the [coalition] headquarters in Erbil instead of Baghdad, and this was implemented. But due to the escalation and Iran’s effective targeting, Erbil is now disappearing from the equation,” the officer said.

Sadiq said the region is confronted with multiple security concerns and thus requires more time to bridge its remaining capability gaps.

“IS is not the only problem," he said. "There are other security threats. The capabilities of the Iraqi Army and Peshmerga are still not fully developed. Iraq has an air force, but it does not have all the capabilities it needs.

“More time is needed for advice and support – perhaps a couple of years. The coalition should continue providing capability support to the Peshmerga, including weapons, ammunition, training, intelligence, air support and counter-drone capabilities,” Sadiq added.

Noting that coalition forces are now relocating to Kuwait and Jordan, he asked: “If they are staying in the region, why can’t they remain in Iraq?”

KRG officials echo these concerns.

Noreldin Waisy, press secretary to KRG Prime Minister Barzani, told MEE that it is clear to everyone that Iraq’s security situation remains fragile. “Militias and armed groups have increasingly become a threat to Iraq’s internal security, as well as to the security of the Kurdistan Region,” he said.

“In any future security or defence arrangements with Iraq, the security interests of the Kurdistan Region must be fully taken into account, and the Kurdistan Region and the Peshmerga forces must be an integral and clearly defined part of these agreements.”

Security vacuum

Alex Plitsas, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, who previously worked in the US Secretary of Defense’s office and was twice deployed to Iraq, told MEE that while the US relationship with the KRG and Peshmerga is “enduring”, its departure could create a security vacuum that may be exploited by hostile actors.

“Iran has demonstrated a willingness to attack Kurdistan as part of its strategy to combat the United States by attacking allies in the region,” he said.

'Ending the coalition mission is not the same as ending the danger facing the Kurdistan Region – mainly from Iran’

– Hejar Berenji, Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan

Since the start of the war with the US, Iran has frequently targeted Erbil airport, citing the presence of US troops.

Hejar Berenji, the representative of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI) in the US, whose party was attacked 163 times during the war, argued that the presence of coalition forces has been used as a pretext to attack the Kurdistan region, but it is “not the main reason”.

He noted that many Iranian attacks in the Kurdistan Region have targeted exiled Iranian Kurdish opposition parties, energy infrastructure and Kurdish institutions, not only US military sites.

“Therefore, coalition forces' withdrawal is not a security guarantee. It is wrong to assume that removing coalition troops will, by itself, end the threat,” Berenji said.

He added that while the Peshmerga Ministry says no replacement air defence system accompanies the withdrawal, Baghdad has postponed the planned disarmament of Iranian‑backed factions from 30 September to June 2027.

No ceasefire for Iran’s Kurdish opposition parties in exile Read More »

“There shall be no weapons outside the framework of the law and no force outside state institutions,” Iraqi Prime Minister Zaidi announced on Wednesday.

However, Berenji said, “coalition forces and their defensive systems are leaving before that process is complete”.

“Further attacks are expected, although their timing and intensity cannot be established in advance,” he added.

“The practical questions are [about] who controls the missiles and drones, and what protection is actually operational for civilians and critical infrastructure. Ending the coalition mission is not the same as ending the danger facing the Kurdistan Region – mainly from Iran and its proxies.”

Sirwan Barzani, a Peshmerga major-general and millionaire businessman, still hopes the Iranian attacks will stop after the US coalition's withdrawal. “There is no more excuse, there are no more Americans, so we hope there will be no drones and no rockets,” he told MEE.

Inside Iraq Erbil, Iraq News Post Date Override 0 Update Date Mon, 05/04/2020 - 21:19 Update Date Override 0